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. 2023 May 27;10(1):334.
doi: 10.1038/s41597-023-02253-5.

Global trends and forecasts of breast cancer incidence and deaths

Yuyan Xu #  1 , Maoyuan Gong #  1 , Yue Wang  2 , Yang Yang  1 , Shu Liu  3 , Qibing Zeng  4
Affiliations

Global trends and forecasts of breast cancer incidence and deaths

Yuyan Xu et al. Sci Data. .

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) is one of the major public health challenges worldwide. Studies that address the new evidence on trends of BC are of great importance for preventing and controlling the occurrence and development of diseases and improving health. The aim of this study was to analyze the outcomes for the global burden of disease (GBD), incidence, deaths, and risk factors for BC from 1990 to 2019, and predict the GBD of BC until 2050 to inform global BC control planning efforts. In this study, the results show that the regions with low levels of socio-demographic index (SDI) will have the largest disease burden of BC in the future. The leading global risk factor for death attributable to BC in 2019 was metabolic risks, followed by behavioral risks. This study supports the worldwide urgent need for comprehensive cancer prevention and control strategies to reduce exposure, early screening, and improve treatment to effectively reduce the GBD of BC.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Global GBD and temporal trends of BC incidence in 204 countries or territories. ASR: age standardized rate; BC: breast cancer; EAPC: estimated annual percentage change; GBD: global burden of disease. (a) The ASR per 100,000 people in 1990; (b) The ASR per 100,000 people in 2019; (c) The change in cancer cases; (d) EAPC in different countries or territories.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Global GBD and temporal trends of BC deaths in 204 countries or territories. ASR: age standardized rate; BC: breast cancer; EAPC: estimated annual percentage change; GBD: global burden of disease. (a) The ASR per 100,000 people in 1990; (b) The ASR per 100,000 people in 2019; (c) The change in cancer cases; (d) EAPC in different countries or territories.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
GBD of BC attributable to risk factors in 1990 and 2019. BC: breast cancer; GBD: global burden of disease; SDI, socio-demographic index.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Factors Influencing EAPC in the GBD. ASR: age standardized rate; ASIR: age standardized incidence rate; ASDR: age standardized death rate; BC: breast cancer; EAPC: estimated annual percentage change; GBD: global burden of disease; HDI: human development index. (a) The correlation between EAPC and ASR in 1990. (b) The correlation between EAPC and ASR in 2019. (c) The correlation between EAPC and HDI in 1990. (d) The correlation between EAPC and HDI in 2019.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Future Forecasts of GBD in BC. ASIR: age standardized incidence rate; ASDR: age standardized death rate; BC: breast cancer. (a) The ASIR per 100,000 for male; (b) The ASDR per 100,000 for male; (c) The ASIR per 100,000 for female; (d) The ASDR per 100,000 for female.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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