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. 2023 May 27;9(6):e16701.
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16701. eCollection 2023 Jun.

Impact of climate change on hydrologic components using CORDEX Africa climate model in Gilgel Gibe 1 watershed Ethiopia

Tamene Adugna Demissie  1
Affiliations

Impact of climate change on hydrologic components using CORDEX Africa climate model in Gilgel Gibe 1 watershed Ethiopia

Tamene Adugna Demissie. Heliyon. .

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological components of Gilgel Gibe-1 using the ensemble of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) Africa Domain namely REMO2009, HIRAM5, CCLM4-8 and RCA4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations. The performance of these RCM models was evaluated using the observed data from 1985 to 2005 and the ensemble was shown to simulate rainfall and air temperature better than individual RCMs. Then the RCMs ensemble data for historical and future projections from 2026 to 2055 years under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were corrected for bias and used to evaluate the impact of climate change. A non-linear bias correction and the monthly mean biases corrections method is used to adjust precipitation and temperature respectively. The future projection shows that; rainfall is expected to increase from August to December with maximum values of 1.97-235.23% under RCP4.5. The maximum temperature is expected to increase with maximum value of 1.62 °C under RCP8.5 in the study area. The calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrologic components such as surface runoff, lateral flow, water yield, evapotranspiration and sediment yield. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly stream flow with the statistical performance of R2 value of 0.82 and NSE value of 0.72 for calibration and R2 of 0.79 and NSE of 0.67 for validation. Surface runoff and sediment yield are expected to increase from August to December under RCP4.5 and from August to February under RCP8.5. Overall both surface runoff and sediment yield are expected to increase in the future.

Keywords: CORDEX RCM; Gilgel Gibe-1; SWAT; Sediment yield; Surface runoff.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Map of the study area.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
(a) Soil map and (b) Land use Land Cover of Gilgel Gibe-1 Watershed.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
(a) Stream flow calibration (b) stream flow validation.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Scatter plot of observed vs simulated stream flow (a) for calibration and (b) for validation.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Hydrological responses at sub basin level under Historical, projected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: (a) SURQ (mm), (b) SED (t/h/yr), (c) GWQ (mm), (d) ET (mm).
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
percent change in hydrologic components under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 at sub basin level: (a) Surface runoff, (b) sediment yield, (c) Groundwater flow, (d)Evapotranspiration.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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