Effect of civil unrest on the incidence of violent and non-natural deaths

Abstract

The unrest situation in South Africa since September 1984 has led to the escalation of violence and numerous incidents of confrontation between security forces and unruly crowds. The failure of routine law enforcement methods to alleviate the situation resulted in declaration of a State of Emergency in various parts of the country on 21 July 1985 and in the Western Cape area on 26 October 1985. The possible effect of civil unrest on the incidence and nature of underlying violence and crime in society leading to non-natural deaths is analysed from data for a 10-year period obtained from the official Death Register of the South African Police mortuary draining the Greater Cape Town area. Yearly and monthly trends in the incidence of non-natural deaths are also compared with those for death from natural causes. Attention is given to the incidence of homicidal sharp and blunt injuries and specifically to fatal gunshot injuries resulting from civilian shootings compared with those resulting from police or security force action. Mortality and general unrest figures associated with the situation in the Greater Cape Town area are finally compared with national figures for 1985 and the first months of 1986. Some effects of lifting of the State of Emergency in the whole country on 7 March 1986 on mortality and unrest figures are presented. In conclusions, some recommendations are made for alterations to riot control methods in an attempt to prevent or reduce fatalities.