National Health Expenditure Projections, 2022-31: Growth To Stabilize Once The COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Ends

Abstract

National health expenditures are projected to grow 5.4 percent, on average, over the course of 2022-31 and to account for roughly 20 percent of the economy by the end of that period. The insured share of the population is anticipated to exceed 92 percent through 2023, in part as a result of record-high Medicaid enrollment, and then decline toward 90 percent as coverage requirements related to the COVID-19 public health emergency expire. The prescription drug provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 are anticipated to lower out-of-pocket spending for Medicare Part D enrollees beginning in 2024 and to result in savings to Medicare beginning in 2031.