Change from low to out-of-season epidemics of influenza in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series study

Abstract

Nonpharmaceutical interventions to limit the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic might reduce the transmission of influenza viruses and disrupt the typical seasonality of influenza. However, changes in epidemiology and seasonal patterns of influenza remain unknown in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza cases between surveillance Week 14 in 2010 and Week 6 in 2023 and ILI outbreaks between Week 14 in 2013 and Week 6 in 2023 were collected from the weekly reports of the Chinese National Influenza Center. A total of 32 10 735 ILI specimens were tested between Week 14 in 2010 and Week 6 in 2023 in China, with 12.4% of specimens positive for influenza. The influenza-positive percentage ranged from 11.8% to 21.1% in southern China and 9.5% to 19.5% in northern China between the 2010/2011 and 2019/2020 influenza seasons. The influenza-positive percentage was 0.7% in southern China and 0.2% in northern China in the 2020/2021 season. An increasing trend in influenza-positive percentage was observed in southern China in Weeks 18-27 in the 2022/2023 season, with a peak of 37.3%. A total of 768 ILI outbreaks reported in southern China in Weeks 14-26 in the 2022/2023 season were much more than those in the same period in the 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 seasons. In summary, seasonal influenza shifted from low to out-of-season epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic in China, especially in southern China. Influenza vaccination and everyday preventive actions, such as mask wearing, appropriate air exchange, and good hand hygiene practices, are essential for the prevention of influenza virus infection during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemics; influenza; nonpharmaceutical interventions; out-of-season.