Trends in the incidence, prevalence and sales volume of menopausal hormone therapy in Sweden from 2000 to 2021

Abstract

Objectives: To describe the trends in the prevalence of use menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) in Sweden over the period 2000-2021 and to analyse the impact of different lengths of run-in on the calculated incident use.

Study design: Individual-level data on MHT dispensations for 2.5 million women aged 45-69 years for the period 2006-2021 were analysed. Aggregated sales volumes in defined daily dose (DDD) were available for the whole study period (2000-2021).

Main outcome measures: One-year prevalence and one-year incidence (18-month run-in) per 1000 women and DDD per 1000 women per day of MHT were the main outcome measures. The predictive values for incidence representing first-ever use of MHT were calculated for different run-in periods, which is a defined period without dispensations.

Results: Both the DDD, from 2000, and the prevalence, from 2006, decreased by over 80 % in women aged 50-54 years, until 2010, when the use of MHT stabilised. The predictive value for incident users to be first-ever users was 88 % in women aged 50-54 years, with a run-in of 18 months, in 2021. The incidence was stable between 2007 and 2016. From 2017 the incidence increased, being most pronounced for women close to menopause.

Conclusions: MHT use decreased significantly after the turn of the century, but has increased since 2017. A run-in period of 18 months was found suitable and reliable for defining incident users of MHT in the age intervals closest to menopause. Incidence seems to be a more sensitive measure than prevalence or DDD for the early detection of changes in trends in prescriptions of MHT.

Keywords: Climacteric; Hormone replacement therapy; Incidence; Menopausal hormone therapy; Pharmacoepidemiology; Run-in period.