Panarchy theory for convergence

Abstract

Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.g., pandemics, regime shifts) and can be highly disruptive, so can pose a significant challenge to the development of sustainable and resilient SES. Convergence science is a new approach promoted by the U.S. National Science Foundation for tackling complex problems confronting humanity through the integration of multiple perspectives, expertise, methods, tools, and analytical approaches. Panarchy theory is a framework useful for studying emergence, because it characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It accounts for the fundamental tenets of complex systems and explicitly grapples with emergence, including the emergence of novelty, and the emergent property of social-ecological resilience. We provide an overview of panarchy, convergence science, and emergence. We discuss the significant data and methodological challenges of using panarchy in a convergence approach to address emergent phenomena, as well as state-of-the-art methods for overcoming them. We present two examples that would benefit from such an approach: climate change and its impacts on social-ecological systems, and the relationships between infectious disease and social-ecological systems.

Keywords: Adaptive cycles; Convergence science; Emergence; Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Transdisciplinary research.

Fig. 1

The classic panarchy figure, showing nested adaptive cycles at three spatio-temporal scales. Dynamics at small and fast scales can cascade up to larger scales, and dynamics at larger scales both constrain possibilities at smaller scales and act as a source of memory in the event of disturbance. Adapted from Gunderson and Holling (2002)

Fig. 2

A representation of the four stages of system development. The two front loop phases, exploitation and conservation, are the slow accumulation of capital (e.g., nutrients and biomass), whereas the two back loop phases occur when disturbance triggers the rapid release of accumulated capital and the reorganization of the system. The ‘x’ arrow is the possibility of the system undergoing a regime shift during the reorganization phase. From Gunderson and Holling (2002)

Fig. 3

The key components of applying a panarchy framework to a complex SES problem via a convergence science approach

Fig. 4

Schematic example of the interactions between climate and SES across multiple scales. The symbols represent human activities, land surface features, and monitoring approaches at different scales in the panarchy. Adaptive cycles (stylized figure eights) occur at each of the four scales

Fig. 5

Schematic example of the interactions between health and SES across multiple scales. The symbols represent pathogen transmission at the human-domestic animal-wildlife interface, human and animal activities, and land surface features, at different scales in the panarchy. Adaptive cycles (stylized figure eights) occur at each of the four scales