Construction and validation of a nomogram for patients with multiple hepatocellular carcinoma: A SEER-based study

Abstract

Background: American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-TNM system doesn't accurately predict prognosis. Our study was designed to identify prognostic factors in patients with multiple hepatocellular carcinoma (MHCC), establish and validate a nomogram model to predict the risk and overall survival (OS) of MHCC patients.

Methods: We selected eligible HCC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, used univariate and multivariate COX regression to determine prognostic factors in MHCC patients, and used these factors to build a nomogram. The accuracy of the prediction was evaluated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to compare the nomogram with AJCC-TNM staging system. Finally, the prognosis of different risks was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method.

Results: 4950 eligible patients with MHCC were enrolled in our study and randomly assigned to the training cohort and test cohort in a 7:3 ratio. After COX regression analysis, age, sex, histological grade, AJCC-TNM stage, tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy in total 9 factors could be used to independently determine OS of patients. the above factors were used to construct a nomogram, and the consistency C-index was 0.775. C-index, DCA, NRI and IDI showed that our nomogram was superior to the AJCC-TNM staging system. K-M plots for OS were performed using the log-rank test, the P-value of which was <0.001.

Conclusions: The practical nomogram can provide more accurate prognostic prediction for multiple hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

Keywords: Multiple hepatocellular carcinoma; Nomogram; Prognosis; Prognostic factors.