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. 2023 Aug 29;148(9):732-749.
doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.063642. Epub 2023 Jun 27.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure: Are There Thresholds and Inflection Points in Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Thresholds Justifying a Clinical Classification?

Toru Kondo  1   2 , Pooja Dewan  1 , Inder S Anand  3 , Akshay S Desai  4 , Milton Packer  5 , Michael R Zile  6 , Marc A Pfeffer  4 , Scott D Solomon  4 , William T Abraham  7 , Sanjiv J Shah  8 , Carolyn S P Lam  9 , Pardeep S Jhund  1 , John J V McMurray  1
Affiliations

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure: Are There Thresholds and Inflection Points in Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Thresholds Justifying a Clinical Classification?

Toru Kondo et al. Circulation. .

Abstract

Background: Recent guidelines proposed a classification for heart failure (HF) on the basis of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), although it remains unclear whether the divisions chosen were biologically rational. Using patients spanning the full range of LVEF, we examined whether there was evidence of LVEF thresholds in patient characteristics or inflection points in clinical outcomes.

Methods: Using patient-level information, we created a merged dataset of 33 699 participants who had been enrolled in 6 randomized controlled HF trials including patients with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. The relationship between the incidence of all-cause death (and specific causes of death) and HF hospitalization, and LVEF, was evaluated using Poisson regression models.

Results: As LVEF increased, age, the proportion of women, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and prevalence of atrial fibrillation and diabetes increased, whereas ischemic pathogenesis, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) decreased. As LVEF increased >50%, age and the proportion of women continued to increase, and ischemic pathogenesis and NT-proBNP decreased, but other characteristics did not change meaningfully. The incidence of most clinical outcomes (except noncardiovascular death) decreased as LVEF increased, with a LVEF inflection point of around 50% for all-cause death and cardiovascular death, around 40% for pump failure death, and around 35% for HF hospitalization. Higher than those thresholds, there was little further decline in the incidence rate. There was no evidence of a J-shaped relationship between LVEF and death; no evidence of worse outcomes in patients with high-normal ("supranormal") LVEF. Similarly, in a subset of patients with echocardiographic data, there were no structural differences in patients with a high-normal LVEF suggestive of amyloidosis, and NT-proBNP levels were consistent with this conclusion.

Conclusions: In patients with HF, there was a LVEF threshold of around 40% to 50% where the pattern of patient characteristics changed, and event rates began to increase compared with higher LVEF values. Our findings provide evidence to support current upper LVEF thresholds defining HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction on the basis of prognosis.

Registration: URL: https://www.

Clinicaltrials: gov; Unique identifiers: NCT00634309, NCT00634400, NCT00634712, NCT00095238, NCT01035255, NCT00094302, NCT00853658, and NCT01920711.

Keywords: heart failure; left ventricular ejection fraction; patient characteristics; prognosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosures T.K. received speaker fees from Abbott, Ono Pharma, Otsuka Pharma, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Abiomed. I.S.A. reports receiving fees for serving on a steering committee from AstraZeneca, ARCA Biopharma, Amgen, and LivaNova; fees for serving as chair of a data and safety monitoring board from Boston Scientific; fees for serving on an end point committee from Boehringer Ingelheim; and fees for serving on an advisory board from Zensun. A.S.D. has received grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Abbott, Biofourmis, Boston Scientific, Boehringer Ingelheim, Corvidia, DalCor Pharma, Relypsa, Regeneron, and Merck; grants and personal fees from Alnylam and Novartis; and personal fees from Amgen, outside the submitted work. M.P. reports consulting fees from AbbVie, Akcea, Actavis, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cardiorentis, Daiichi Sankyo, Gilead, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Relypsa, Sanofi, Synthetic Biologics, and Theravance. M.R.Z. reports research funding from Novartis and has been a consultant for Novartis, Abbott, Boston Scientific, CVRx, EBR, Endotronics, Ironwood, Merck, Medtronic, and Myokardia V Wave. M.A.P. reports research grant support through Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Novartis; reports consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly Alliance, Corvidia, DalCor, GlaxoSmithKline, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute CONNECTs (Master Protocol Committee), Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Peerbridge, and Sanofi; and has equity in DalCor. S.D.S. has received research grants from Actelion, Alnylam, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bellerophon, Bayer, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celladon, Cytokinetics, Eidos, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Ionis, Lilly, Mesoblast, MyoKardia, National Institutes of Health/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Neurotronik, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Respicardia, Sanofi Pasteur, Theracos, and Us2.AI; and has consulted for Abbott, Action, Akros, Alnylam, Amgen, Arena, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardior, Cardurion, Corvia, Cytokinetics, Daiichi-Sankyo, GlaxoSmithKline, Lilly, Merck, Myokardia, Novartis, Roche, Theracos, Quantum Genomics, Cardurion, Janssen, Cardiac Dimensions, Tenaya, Sanofi-Pasteur, Dinaqor, Tremeau, CellPro-Thera, Moderna, American Regent, and Sarepta. W.T.A. has received personal fees from Abbott; has received consulting fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, CVRx, Edwards Lifesciences, Impulse Dynamics, and Respicardia; has received salary support from V-Wave Medical; and has received research support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, all for studies performed within the heart failure arena. S.J.S. has received either personal or institutional research support from AstraZeneca. C.S.P.L. is supported by a Clinician Scientist Award from the National Medical Research Council of Singapore; has received research support from Novo Nordisk and Roche Diagnostics; has served as consultant or on the Advisory Board/Steering Committee/Executive Committee for Alleviant Medical, Allysta Pharma, Amgen, AnaCardio AB, Applied Therapeutics, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, CardioRenal, Cytokinetics, Darma Inc, EchoNous Inc, Eli Lilly, Impulse Dynamics, Intellia Therapeutics, Ionis Pharmaceutical, Janssen Research & Development LLC, Medscape/WebMD Global LLC, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Prosciento Inc, Radcliffe Group Ltd, Recardio Inc, ReCor Medical, Roche Diagnostics, Sanofi, Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics and Us2.AI; and serves as cofounder and nonexecutive director of Us2.AI. P.S.J. reports speakers’ fees from AstraZeneca, Novartis, Alkem Metabolics, ProAdWise Communications, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Intas Pharmaceuticals; advisory board fees from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis; and research funding from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Analog Devices Inc. P.S.J.’s employer, the University of Glasgow, has been remunerated for clinical trial work from AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Novartis, and Novo Nordisk. P.S.J. is a director of Global Clinical Trial Partners Ltd. J.J.V.M. reports payments through Glasgow University from work on clinical trials, consulting, and other activities from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Cardurion, Cytokinetics, GSK, KBP Biosciences, and Novartis; and personal consultancy fees from Alnylam Pharma., Bayer, BMS, George Clinical PTY Ltd, Ionis Pharma, Novartis, Regeneron Pharma, and River 2 Renal Corporation. J.J.V.M. receives personal lecture fees from Abbott, Alkem Metabolics, AstraZeneca, Blue Ocean Scientific Solutions Ltd, Boehringer Ingelheim, Canadian Medical and Surgical Knowledge, Emcure Pharma Ltd, Eris Lifesciences, European Academy of Continued Medical Education, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Imagica Health, Intas Pharma, JB Chemicals & Pharma Ltd, Lupin Pharma, Medscape/Heart.Org, ProAdWise Communications, Radcliffe Cardiology, Sun Pharma, The Corpus, Translation Research Group, and Translational Medicine Academy. He is a director of Global Clinical Trial Partners Ltd. The other author reports no conflicts.

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