Total Bilirubin Yields Prognostic Information Following a Myocardial Infarction in the Elderly

Abstract

Total bilirubin consists of an unconjugated form, solubilized by its binding to albumin, and a conjugated form representing a minor part of the circulating bilirubin. As total bilirubin in physiological concentrations is a powerful antioxidant, its concentration gradient may reflect the health status of an individual, and serve as a prognostic indicator of outcome in primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention. The aim of this study was to assess the association between total bilirubin and incident cardiovascular events following a myocardial infarction. Total bilirubin in serum was measured at baseline 2-8 weeks after hospitalization for an MI in 881 patients, aged 70 to 82 years, included in the OMEMI (Omega-3 Fatty acids in Elderly with Myocardial Infarction) study, where patients were followed-up for up to 2 years. The first major adverse clinical event (MACE) was the primary endpoint and consisted of nonfatal MI, unscheduled coronary revascularization, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure or all-cause death. As total bilirubin was non-normally distributed, log-transformed values and quartiles of bilirubin were analyzed using Cox regression models. The median (Q1, and Q3) baseline concentration of bilirubin was 11 (9, and 14) µmol/L, and higher log-transformed concentrations were associated with male sex, lower New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and non-smoking. MACE occurred in 177 (20.1%) patients during the follow-up. Higher concentrations of bilirubin were associated with a lower risk of MACE: HR 0.67 (95%CI 0.47-0.97) per log-unit increase, p = 0.032. Patients in the lowest quartile of bilirubin (<9 µmol/L) had the highest risk with HR 1.61 (95%CI 1.19-2.18), p = 0.002, compared to quartiles 2-4. This association remained significant even after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, NYHA class and treatment allocation: HR 1.52 (1.21-2.09), p = 0.009. Low concentrations of bilirubin (<9 µmol/L) are associated with increased nonfatal cardiovascular events or death in elderly patients with a recent myocardial infarction.

Keywords: aged; bilirubin; myocardial infarction; prognosis; secondary prevention.

Figure 1

Cumulative proportion of major adverse cardiovascular events by quartiles of total bilirubin at baseline.

Figure 2

Proportion of patients with incident MACE and its components during 2 years follow-up by quartiles of baseline total bilirubin.