Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Jun 7;12(12):2236.
doi: 10.3390/plants12122236.

Future Climate Effects on Yield and Mortality of Conventional versus Modified Oil Palm in SE Asia

Robert Russell Monteith Paterson  1   2
Affiliations

Future Climate Effects on Yield and Mortality of Conventional versus Modified Oil Palm in SE Asia

Robert Russell Monteith Paterson. Plants (Basel). .

Abstract

Palm oil is a very important commodity which will be required well into the future. However, the consequences of growing oil palm (OP) are often detrimental to the environment and contribute to climate change. On the other hand, climate change stress will decrease the production of palm oil by causing mortality and ill health of OP, as well as reducing yields. Genetically modified OP (mOP) may be produced in the future to resist climate change stress, although it will take a long time to develop and introduce, if they are successfully produced at all. It is crucial to understand the benefits mOP may bring for resisting climate change and increasing the sustainability of the palm oil industry. This paper employs modeling of suitable climate for OP using the CLIMEX program in (a) Indonesia and Malaysia, which are the first and second largest growers of OP respectively, and (b) Thailand and Papua New Guinea, which are much smaller growers. It is useful to compare these countries in terms of future palm oil production and what benefits planting mOP may bring. Uniquely, narrative models are used in the current paper to determine how climate change will affect yields of conventional OP and mOP. The effect of climate change on the mortality of mOP is also determined for the first time. The gains from using mOP were moderate, but substantial, if compared to the current production of other continents or countries. This was especially the case for Indonesia and Malaysia. The development of mOP requires a realistic appreciation of what benefits may accrue.

Keywords: Elaeis guineensis; Indonesia; Malaysia; Papua New Guinea; climate change; temperature.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The author declares no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Oil palm mortalities of conventional oil palm (cOP) and modified oil palm (mOP) in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea (PNG) from current time (CT) to 2100.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Oil palm mortalities of conventional oil palm (cOP) and modified oil palm (mOP) in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea (PNG) from current time (CT) to 2100.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Yields of palm oil from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea (PNG), including conventional OP (cOP) and modified oil palm (mOP), from the current time (CT) to 2100.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Yields of palm oil from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea (PNG), including conventional OP (cOP) and modified oil palm (mOP), from the current time (CT) to 2100.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. COP 26. COP26 Outcomes—UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) at the SEC—Glasgow. 2021. [(accessed on 6 June 2023)]. Available online: ukcop26.org.
    1. Ghini R., Bettiol W., Hamada E.D. Diseases in tropical and plantation crops as affected by climate changes: Current knowledge and perspectives. Plant Pathol. 2011;60:122–132. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02403.x. - DOI
    1. Koh L.P., Wilcove D.S. Is oil palm agriculture really destroying tropical biodiversity? Conserv. Lett. 2008;1:60–64. doi: 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00011.x. - DOI
    1. Tonks A.J., Aplin P., Beriro D.J., Cooper H., Evers S., Vane C.H., Sjögersten S. Impacts of conversion of tropical peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation on peat organic chemistry, physical properties and carbon stocks. Geoderma. 2017;289:36–45. doi: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.11.018. - DOI
    1. Cook S. Fluvial Organic CARBON losses from Tropical Peatland Oil Palm Plantations in Sarawak, Malaysia. University of Leicester. 2018. [(accessed on 6 June 2023)]. Available online: https://peatlands.org/document/fluvial-organic-carbon-losses-from-oil-pa...

LinkOut - more resources