Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Mar;2(1):100063.
doi: 10.1016/j.focus.2022.100063. Epub 2022 Dec 22.

Drug Overdose Deaths Among Non-Hispanic Black Men in the U.S.: Age-Specific Projections Through 2025

Rebecca Arden Harris  1   2
Affiliations

Drug Overdose Deaths Among Non-Hispanic Black Men in the U.S.: Age-Specific Projections Through 2025

Rebecca Arden Harris. AJPM Focus. 2023 Mar.

Abstract

Introduction: Fatal drug overdoses have risen sharply in the U.S. since 2015, reaching their highest levels during the pandemic. Non-Hispanic Black men have been disproportionately harmed by this latest surge; overdose mortality per 100,000 has increased fourfold since 2015. Whether the mortality rate will continue to climb is unknown. In this study, we addressed the narrower question of which age groups are likely to experience a significant increase or decrease in the burden of drug overdose deaths through 2025, based on foreseeable changes in the age structure of the Black male population.

Methods: We used the 2020 and provisional 2021 age-specific mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control WONDER (Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database and the standard population balancing equation to project overdose deaths in 2025. Overdose deaths were identified by ICD-10 codes. We bracketed the projections between 2 plausible alternatives: a pessimistic forecast based on time series extrapolations and an optimistic forecast that assumes success nationally in lowering overdose deaths through prevention, treatment, and harm reduction initiatives.

Results: Among Black men aged 31-47 years, overdose deaths in 2025 are expected to increase by 440 or 11% (95% CI=8%, 14%) relative to 2020. By contrast, overdose deaths among younger Black men aged 19-30 years are expected to decline by 160 or -9% (95% CI= -15%, -5%). Among older Black men aged 48-64 years, overdose deaths are also expected to decline by 330 or -7% (95% CI= -10%, -4%). Similar results were found using 2021 provisional mortality rates.

Conclusions: Overdose deaths are predicted to increase significantly over current levels among Black men in their 30s and 40s. Local policy makers should direct harm reduction resources, such as naloxone kits, syringes, and fentanyl test strips, to places frequented by Black men in this age group. Outreach messaging should be tailored to resonate with men of middle age. Equally urgent is the scaling up of nonstigmatizing, evidence-based drug treatment and recovery support services in Black neighborhoods.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Declarations of interest: none.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Drug overdose mortality rate by age and year, Black men, 2017–2021.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected population change by age of Black men from 2020 to 2025.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Three forecasts―naive, naive with 3% mitigation, and extrapolation using interrupted time series analysis (ITSA)―of 2025 overdose deaths relative to 2020 deaths of Black men aged 19–30, 31–47, and 48–64 years.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. The opioid crisis and the Black/African American population: an urgent issue. Rockville, MD: Office of Behavioral Health Equity. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.https://store.samhsa.gov/sites/default/files/SAMHSA_Digital_Download/PEP.... Published 2020. Accessed June 10, 2022.
    1. Gondré-Lewis MC, Abijo T, Gondré-Lewis TA. The opioid epidemic: a crisis disproportionately impacting Black Americans and urban communities. J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. In press. Online September 6, 2022. 10.1007/s40615-022-01384-6. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. National Vital Statistics System, CDC WONDER online database. Data are from the multiple cause of death files; 1999–2020, and from the provisional data files for 2021. As compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the vital statistics cooperative program. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. http://wonder.cdc.gov. Accessed June 10, 2022.
    1. Darakjy S, Brady JE, DiMaggio CJ, Li G. Applying Farr's Law to project the drug overdose mortality epidemic in the United States. Inj Epidemiol. 2014;1(1):31. doi: 10.1186/s40621-014-0031-2. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Lim TY, Stringfellow EJ, Stafford CA, et al. Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022;119(23) doi: 10.1073/pnas.2115714119. - DOI - PMC - PubMed