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. 2023 Jun 30;380(6652):1324-1327.
doi: 10.1126/science.adg3781. Epub 2023 Jun 29.

Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

John Bistline  1 , Geoffrey Blanford  1 , Maxwell Brown  2 , Dallas Burtraw  3 , Maya Domeshek  3 , Jamil Farbes  4 , Allen Fawcett  5 , Anne Hamilton  2 , Jesse Jenkins  6 , Ryan Jones  4 , Ben King  7 , Hannah Kolus  7 , John Larsen  7 , Amanda Levin  8 , Megan Mahajan  9 , Cara Marcy  5 , Erin Mayfield  10 , James McFarland  5 , Haewon McJeon  11 , Robbie Orvis  9 , Neha Patankar  12 , Kevin Rennert  3 , Christopher Roney  1 , Nicholas Roy  3 , Greg Schivley  13 , Daniel Steinberg  2 , Nadejda Victor  14 , Shelley Wenzel  9 , John Weyant  15 , Ryan Wiser  16 , Mei Yuan  17 , Alicia Zhao  11
Affiliations

Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

John Bistline et al. Science. .

Abstract

Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: Jesse Jenkins is part owner of DeSolve, LLC, which provides techno-economic analysis and decision support for clean energy technology ventures and investors. A list of clients can be found at https://www.linkedin.com/in/jessedjenkins. He serves on the advisory boards of Eavor Technologies Inc., a closed-loop geothermal technology company, and Rondo Energy, a provider of high-temperature thermal energy storage and industrial decarbonization solutions and has an equity interest in both companies. He also provides policy advisory services to Clean Air Task Force, a non-profit environmental advocacy group, and serves as a technical advisor to MUUS Climate Partners and Energy Impact Partners, both investors in early-stage climate technology companies. Ryan Wiser is a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, on partial detail under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.. Cross-model comparison of U.S. emissions reductions under IRA and reference scenarios from 2005 levels.
(A) Historical and projected economy-wide GHG emissions. Historical emissions and 100-year Global Warming Potential values (for models representing non-CO2 GHGs) are based on the U.S. EPA’s “Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.” (B) Emissions reductions by sector and model over time under IRA scenarios relative to reference levels. Models with * designate that electric sector IRA provisions only are represented, and † denotes energy CO2 IRA provisions only. Additional information on participating models and study assumptions can be found in Materials and Methods S1 and S2.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.. Summary of key indicators for IRA and reference scenarios across models.
Clockwise from the top, indicators are 2030 electric sector CO2 reductions (% from 2005 levels), 2030 generation share from low-emitting technologies (%, including renewables, nuclear, and CCS-equipped generation), 2030 capacity share from low-emitting technologies (% installed capacity), 2030 coal generation decline (% from 2021 levels), economy-wide CO2 reduction (% from 2005 levels), 2030 electric vehicle new sales share (% of new vehicle sold are battery or plug-in hybrid electric), 2030 electricity share of final energy (%), and 2030 petroleum reduction (% from 2005 levels). Model-specific values for these metrics are provided in Table S6.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Meinshausen M et al. Realization of Paris Agreement Pledges May Limit Warming Just Below 2 °C. Nature 604, 304–309 (2022). - PubMed
    1. United Nations Environment Programme, “Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window” (2022); https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022.
    1. Congressional Budget Office, “Summary: Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 117-169, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of S. Con. Res. 14” (2022); https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-09/PL117-169_9-7-22.pdf.
    1. Larsen J et al. “A Turning Point for US Climate Progress: Assessing the Climate and Clean Energy Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act” (Rhodium Group, 2022).
    1. Jenkins J et al. “Preliminary Report: The Climate and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” (REPEAT Project, 2022).