Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV prior to anti-retroviral therapy initiation: A diagnostic accuracy study

Abstract

Background: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat for people living with HIV (PLHIV). Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for TB diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) TB screening.

Methods: We enrolled consecutive adults referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene-panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA biomarkers for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity/specificity at pre-specified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. We compared performance to CRP (threshold ≥5mg/L), World Health Organisation (WHO) four-symptom screen (W4SS) and the WHO target product profile for TB triage tests.

Results: A total of 707 PLHIV were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells/mm3. Of 676 with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed TB. The seven RNA biomarkers were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0.42-0.93) and discriminated TB culture-positivity with similar AUROCs (0.73-0.80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0.78; 95% CI 0.72-0.83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among W4SS-negative (AUROCs 0.56-0.65) compared to W4SS-positive participants (AUROCs 0.75-0.84). The RNA biomarker with highest AUROC point estimate was a 4-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.86), with sensitivity 0.83 (0.74-0.90) and specificity 0.59 (0.55-0.63) at Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 0.80 (0.70-0.87), specificity of 0.70 (0.66-0.74) and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone.

Interpretation: RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing for PLHIV prior to ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP, and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches may be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support TB screening pre-ART initiation.

Funding: South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London.

Figure 1. Consort diagram.

Figure 2. Blood RNA biomarker discrimination of Mtb sputum culture positivity

Scores and discrimination of RNA signatures and CRP for primary outcome of sputum culture positivity (n = 676 participants). Scores are shown as Z-scores for RNA signatures, and log-2 transformed CRP (mg/L). Discrimination presented as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 3. Decision curve analysis for alternative triage strategies to trigger confirmatory investigations for TB

Net benefit (true positive rate - false positive rate weighted by cost:benefit ratio) for investigate all and investigate none approaches across the range of threshold probabilities that a service may use to trigger confirmatory investigations for TB is compared to that of decisions to investigate triggered by each of triage strategies indicated: CRP (≥5 and ≥10mg/L), Suliman4 (Z2), symptoms (W4SS) and using an exploratory approach of CRP>=5 and Suliman4 >=Z2.