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. 2024 May:59:189-199.
doi: 10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003. Epub 2023 Jul 6.

Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bing Wu  1 , Ye Li  2 , Baoguo Shi  3 , Xiyu Zhang  4 , Yongqiang Lai  1 , Fuqiang Cui  5 , Xiaodan Bai  6 , Wenjing Xiang  6 , Guihong Geng  6 , Bei Liu  5 , Mingli Jiao  1 , Qunhong Wu  7 , Huiying Yang  8 , Chenxi Zhang  1 , Xinwei Liu  1 , Yulu Tian  1 , Hongyu Li  1
Affiliations

Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bing Wu et al. J Adv Res. 2024 May.

Abstract

Introduction: Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden.

Objectives: To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement.

Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years.

Results: In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development.

Conclusions: The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.

Keywords: Age-period-cohort; Breast cancer; Global burden of disease; Western Pacific Region.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The age standardized incidence rate(A), death rate(B), and DALYs rate(C) of BC per 100,000 population in different regions, from 1990 to 2019.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Projections of ASIR and ASDR for different country subgroups up to 2044. The dotted line shows the forecast for 2020–2044. We visualized by income group, (A) ASIR in High-income, (B) ASDR in High-income, (C)ASIR in Upper-middle-income, (D) ASDR in Upper-middle-income, (E) ASIR in Lower-middle-income, and (F) ASDR in Lower-middle-income. Data for global and the WPR were supplemented for comparison in each subgroup.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Percentage of breast cancer age-standardized death and DALYs attributable to six risk factors in the global, Western Pacific region and three income groups in 1990 and 2019. Six risk factors include tobacco, alcohol use, high body-mass index, dietary risks, low physical activity and high fasting plasma glucose.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Trend in ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs rates of breast cancer in the global and three income groups by socio-demographic index, 1990 to 2019. Expected values based on Socio-demographic Index and disease rates in all locations are shown as the black line
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Effects of age on breast cancer incidence in three income groups. (A) High-income (B) Upper-middle-income, and (C) Lower-middle-income.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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