Predicting survival of infants of birth weight less than 801 grams

Abstract

The likelihood of survival to 28 days of life was determined retrospectively for 106 infants weighing less than 801 g at birth. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that birth weight and inspired oxygen fraction made an independent contribution to the prediction of survival at 8 h of age (predictive accuracy 76%). At 16 and 24 h of age, body temperature, pH, and the presence of spontaneous breaths were the independent variables predicting survival (predictive accuracy 79%). Of 37 infants with calculated chances of survival of less than 50% at 16 h, 29 died (predictive accuracy 78%). Seven of the remaining eight infants who survived "against the odds" either died later of chronic lung disease or had severe handicapping complications by 3 months of age. These predictions are first approximations and are not intended for use in making decisions about patient management.