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. 2023 Jul 11;42(1):67.
doi: 10.1186/s41043-023-00410-5.

Predictive value of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride glycemic index for diabetes incidence in pre-diabetes patients: a prospective cohort study

Mehdi Sharafi  1 , Zahra Amiri  1 , Babak Pezeshki  2 , Mohammad Ali Mohsenpour  3   4 , Mohammad Hassan Eftekhari  4 , Sima Afrashteh  5 , Elham Haghjoo  6 , Akram Farhadi  7 , Mohsen Khaleghi  8 , Zahra Mastaneh  9
Affiliations

Predictive value of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride glycemic index for diabetes incidence in pre-diabetes patients: a prospective cohort study

Mehdi Sharafi et al. J Health Popul Nutr. .

Abstract

Background: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) and triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-c) are the indices that can predict the progression of pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to examine the relationship between TyG and TG/HDL-c indices with the incidence of T2DM in pre-diabetes patients.

Methods: A total of 758 pre-diabetic patients aged 35-70 years who were enrolled in a prospective Fasa Persian Adult Cohort were followed up for 60 months. TyG and TG/HDL-C indices were obtained at baseline data and divided into quartiles. The 5-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis while controlling for baseline covariates.

Results: During 5 years of follow-up, there were 95 incident cases of T2DM, with an overall incidence rate of 12.53%. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, marital status, socioeconomic status, body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, hypertension, total cholesterol, and dyslipidemia, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) demonstrated that patients with the highest TyG and TG/HDL-C indices quartile were at higher risk of T2DM (HR = 4.42, 95%CI 1.75-11.21) and (HR = 2.15, 95%CI 1.04-4.47), respectively, compared to participants in the lowest quartile. As the quantiles of these indices increase, the HR value shows a significant increment (P < 0.05).

Conclusion: The results of our study showed that the TyG and TG/HDL-C indices can be important independent predictors for the progression of pre-diabetes to T2DM. Therefore, controlling the components of these indicators in pre-diabetes patients can prevent developing T2DM or delay its occurrence.

Keywords: Cox regression model; Diabetes; Fasa Persian cohort study; Pre-diabetes; Triglyceride glucose index; Triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flow diagram of study population
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes by Kaplan–Meier analysis according to TyG index. The p-value was calculated with the log-rank test
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes by Kaplan–Meier analysis according to TG/HDL-C index. The p-value was calculated with the log-rank test
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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