Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Jun 15;15(6):4172-4178.
eCollection 2023.

A new nomogram for the individualized prediction of children's mortality risk in pediatric intensive care unit

Chaoyan Yue  1 , Chunyi Zhang  1 , Chunmei Ying  1
Affiliations

A new nomogram for the individualized prediction of children's mortality risk in pediatric intensive care unit

Chaoyan Yue et al. Am J Transl Res. .

Abstract

Objective: We developed a new nomogram for the prediction of mortality risk in children in pediatric intensive care units (PICU).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using the PICU Public Database, a study that included a total of 10,538 children, to develop a new risk model for mortality in children in the intensive care units (ICU). The prediction model was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression with predictors including age and physiological indicators, and the prediction model was presented as a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated based on its discriminative power and was internally validated.

Results: Predictors contained in the individualized prediction nomogram included the neutrophils, platelets, albumin, lactate, oxygen saturation (P<0.1). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for this prediction model is 0.7638 (95% CI: 0.7415-0.7861), which has effective discriminatory power. The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model in the validation dataset is 0.7404 (95% CI: 0.7016-0.7793), which is still effectively discriminative.

Conclusion: The mortality risk prediction model constructed in this study can be easily used for individualized prediction of mortality risk in children in pediatric intensive care units.

Keywords: Pediatric ICU; mortality; nomogram; prediction.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flowchart of participants.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Nomogram for predicting mortality of pediatric ICU. To use the nomogram, an individual patient’s value is located on each variable axis, and a line is drawn upward to determine the number of points received for each variable value. The sum of these numbers is located on the Total Points axis, and a line is drawn downward to the risk axes to determine the risk of mortality.
Figure 3
Figure 3
ROC of the nomogram.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Pollack MM, Patel KM, Ruttimann UE. PRISM III: an updated pediatric risk of mortality score. Crit Care Med. 1996;24:743–752. - PubMed
    1. Straney L, Clements A, Parslow RC, Pearson G, Shann F, Alexander J, Slater A ANZICS Paediatric Study Group and the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network. Paediatric index of mortality 3: an updated model for predicting mortality in pediatric intensive care*. Pediatr Crit Care Med. 2013;14:673–81. - PubMed
    1. Zhang L, Huang H, Cheng Y, Xu L, Huang X, Pei Y, Tang W, Qin Z. Predictive value of four pediatric scores of critical illness and mortality on evaluating mortality risk in pediatric critical patients. Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue. 2018;30:51–56. - PubMed
    1. Teres D, Lemeshow S. Why severity models should be used with caution. Crit Care Clin. 1994;10:93–110. - PubMed
    1. Zeng X, Yu G, Lu Y, Tan L, Wu X, Shi S, Duan H, Shu Q, Li H. PIC, a paediatric-specific intensive care database. Sci Data. 2020;7:14. - PMC - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources