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. 2023 Jul 21;18(7):e0289112.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289112. eCollection 2023.

Evaluating the role of salt intake in achieving WHO NCD targets in the Eurasian Economic Union: A PRIME modeling study

Vern Perera  1 , Luke N Allen  2 , Clare Farrand  3 , Edwin Jit Leung Kwong  4 , Isurujith Liyanage  1 , Kremlin Wickramasinghe  5
Affiliations

Evaluating the role of salt intake in achieving WHO NCD targets in the Eurasian Economic Union: A PRIME modeling study

Vern Perera et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

The World Health Organization has set clear global targets in reducing non-communicable disease mortality by 2030 in its sustainable development goals. This study models the number of deaths that could be averted if Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) member states met the target of reducing their population's current mean salt intake by 30% to achieve mortality reduction targets. Using the WHO Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME), we modelled the mortality impact of reducing salt consumption by 30%, as well as according to WHO recommended levels (5 g/person/day), for the five member states of the EEU. PRIME models the number of averted deaths from reducing salt intake by applying established risk ratios to a given population. The baseline demographic and mortality data that are required to generate these estimates were obtained from the relevant government statistical bodies, and salt intake data were referenced from surveillance studies. Uncertainty intervals were generated using Monte Carlo simulation. If salt consumption was reduced by 30%, we estimate that there would have been 94,150 (95%UI: 47,329 to 137,131) fewer deaths due to cardiovascular disease in the EEU in the baseline year, with males and the elderly being more affected. If the WHO-recommended maximum salt intake of 5 g/day was achieved, a total of 193,155 (95%UI: 98,548 to 272,536) deaths would have been prevented. These findings underline the importance of incorporating effective policy changes to meet targets in reducing NCD mortality by one-third by 2030.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Total deaths prevented after salt intake interventions.
Further reductions in salt intake resulted in an even higher proportion of deaths averted. Kyrgyzstan had more than double the number of deaths prevented after adopting the WHO recommended salt intake compared to a 30% reduction.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Proportion of cardiovascular deaths prevented following a 30% reduction in salt.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Relative reductions in disease-specific mortality after adopting salt intake interventions.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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