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. 2023 Jul 24;18(7):e0288561.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288561. eCollection 2023.

Temporal trends in the disease burden of osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

Xiaoqing Chen  1 , Haifeng Tang  1 , Jinding Lin  1 , Rongdong Zeng  1
Affiliations

Temporal trends in the disease burden of osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

Xiaoqing Chen et al. PLoS One. .

Erratum in

Abstract

This study aimed to report trends in the global burden of osteoarthritis (OA) from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends in the following years based on Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The study included reporting on the prevalence and incidence rates, as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and Estimated Annual Percent Change (EAPC) were analyzed along with related factors, finally, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis were utilized to predict the trends in the upcoming years. In 2019, globally, there were about 414.7 million (95%UI: 368.8 to 464.4 million) OA incident cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) about 492.21 (95% UI:438.66 to 551.5) per 100000. And there were about 527.8 million (95% UI: 478.7 to 584.8 million) OA prevalent cases in 2019. The DALYs for OA increased to about 189.49 million (95%UI: 95.71 to 376.60 million) from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC:0.14%; 95%CI: 0.12% to 0.16%). There was a positive association between ASR and Socio-demographic index (SDI) both at the regional and national level. BAPC results showed that ASR in females would decrease but increase in males in the following years. In conclusion, the global burden of OA has risen steadily between 1990 and 2019, placing a significant strain on society. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. To alleviate this burden, it is necessary to implement measures that target risk factors such as high body mass index.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
Global number and age-standardized rates of incidence (A) and DALYs (B) by sex, age and SDI regions. SDI: socio-demographic index; DALYs: disability-adjusted life years.
Fig 2
Fig 2. The proportion of hip, knee, hand and other sites osteoarthritis at region level, both sexes, in 1990 and 2019.
Fig 3
Fig 3. The global disease burden of osteoarthritis for both sexes in 204 countries and territories.
A: the ASR of osteoarthritis in 2019; B: the EAPC of osteoarthritis in 2019. ASR: age-standardized incidence rate; EAPC: Estimated Annual Percent Change.
Fig 4
Fig 4
The association between ASR and SDI at the region (A) and nation (B) level. ASR: age-standardized incidence rate; Socio-demographic index (SDI).
Fig 5
Fig 5
The association between EAPC and ASR (A), HDI (B). EAPC: Estimated Annual Percent Change; ASR: age-standardized incidence rate; HDI: Human development index (HDI).
Fig 6
Fig 6
The risk factor of osteoarthritis in 1990 (A) and 2019 (B).
Fig 7
Fig 7
Trends of ASR from 2019 to 2030 in females (A) and males (B) predicted by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. ASR: age-standardized incidence rate.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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