Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in Older Inpatients with Suspected Infection

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the rate and predictors of death in older individuals with suspected infection at any time during hospital stay in a geriatric acute ward and the prognostic ability of different tools [quick Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Modified and National Early Warning Scores (MEWS) and (NEWS)] in such population.

Design: Prospective observational single-center cohort study.

Setting and participants: Among patients admitted to an acute geriatric unit of an Italian University Hospital with at least 1 sepsis risk factor, all subjects with suspected infection at admission or during hospital stay (defined as antibiotic prescription and associated culture test) were considered.

Methods: A geriatric assessment including comorbidity and social, functional, and cognitive status was performed for each patient. Clinical parameters were evaluated at least twice daily throughout hospital stay; qSOFA, MEWS, and NEWS were derived, with positive cutoffs set at ≥2, ≥5, and ≥7, respectively.

Results: Among 305 older inpatients (median age 86.0 years, 49.2% female), 21% died during hospital stay. Sepsis was diagnosed in 31.8% of the overall sample and in 64.1% of deceased patients. Deceased patients showed a significantly higher prevalence of prior institutionalization, functional dependence, cognitive impairment, and multimorbidity. The prognostic accuracy of the qSOFA score at infection onset was only fair (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.79, P < .001) and comparable with that of MEWS and NEWS. After multivariable analysis, in-hospital death was positively associated with male sex [odds ratio (OR), 2.11; 95% CI, 1.01-4.44; P = .048] and abnormal white blood cells count (OR, 4.93; 95% CI, 2.36-10.29; P < .001), platelet count (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.10-6.16; P = .029) and serum creatinine (OR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.30-5.61; P = .008), along with any of the score considered, and negatively associated with autonomy in instrumental activities (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.68-0.90; P < .001).

Conclusions: Prognosis in older inpatients with infection or sepsis appears to be determined both by the geriatric characteristics and by the severity of the acute event, expressed by recommended tools and blood test results.

Keywords: geriatric assessment; infections; older inpatients; prognostic evaluation; sepsis.