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. 2023 Oct 15;42(23):4193-4206.
doi: 10.1002/sim.9855. Epub 2023 Jul 25.

A time-dependent Poisson-Gamma model for recruitment forecasting in multicenter studies

Armando Turchetta  1 , Nicolas Savy  2 , David A Stephens  3 , Erica E M Moodie  1 , Marina B Klein  4
Affiliations

A time-dependent Poisson-Gamma model for recruitment forecasting in multicenter studies

Armando Turchetta et al. Stat Med. .

Abstract

Forecasting recruitments is a key component of the monitoring phase of multicenter studies. One of the most popular techniques in this field is the Poisson-Gamma recruitment model, a Bayesian technique built on a doubly stochastic Poisson process. This approach is based on the modeling of enrollments as a Poisson process where the recruitment rates are assumed to be constant over time and to follow a common Gamma prior distribution. However, the constant-rate assumption is a restrictive limitation that is rarely appropriate for applications in real studies. In this paper, we illustrate a flexible generalization of this methodology which allows the enrollment rates to vary over time by modeling them through B-splines. We show the suitability of this approach for a wide range of recruitment behaviors in a simulation study and by estimating the recruitment progression of the Canadian Co-infection Cohort.

Keywords: Bayesian statistics; Poisson-gamma model; multicenter studies; recruitment forecasting.

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References

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