Biomarkers Associated With Severe COVID-19 Among Populations With High Cardiometabolic Risk: A 2-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

Abstract

Importance: Cardiometabolic parameters are established risk factors for COVID-19 severity. The identification of causal or protective biomarkers for COVID-19 severity may facilitate the development of novel therapies.

Objective: To identify protein biomarkers that promote or reduce COVID-19 severity and that mediate the association of cardiometabolic risk factors with COVID-19 severity.

Design, setting, and participants: This genetic association study using 2-sample mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted in 2022 to investigate associations among cardiometabolic risk factors, circulating biomarkers, and COVID-19 hospitalization. Inputs for MR included genetic and proteomic data from 4147 participants with dysglycemia and cardiovascular risk factors collected through the Outcome Reduction With Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN) trial. Genome-wide association study summary statistics were obtained from (1) 3 additional independent plasma proteome studies, (2) genetic consortia for selected cardiometabolic risk factors (including body mass index [BMI], type 2 diabetes, type 1 diabetes, and systolic blood pressure; all n >10 000), and (3) the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (n = 5773 hospitalized and 15 497 nonhospitalized case participants with COVID-19). Data analysis was performed in July 2022.

Exposures: Genetically determined concentrations of 235 circulating proteins assayed with a multiplex biomarker panel from the ORIGIN trial for the initial analysis.

Main outcomes and measures: Hospitalization status of individuals from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative with a positive COVID-19 test result.

Results: Among 235 biomarkers tested in samples totaling 22 101 individuals, MR analysis showed that higher kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) levels reduced the likelihood of COVID-19 hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] per SD increase in KIM-1 levels, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.79-0.93]). A meta-analysis validated the protective association with no observed directional pleiotropy (OR per SD increase in KIM-1 levels, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.88-0.95]). Of the cardiometabolic risk factors studied, only BMI was associated with KIM-1 levels (0.17 SD increase in biomarker level per 1 kg/m2 [95% CI, 0.08-0.26]) and COVID-19 hospitalization (OR per 1-SD biomarker level, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.18-1.50]). Multivariable MR analysis also revealed that KIM-1 partially mitigated the association of BMI with COVID-19 hospitalization, reducing it by 10 percentage points (OR adjusted for KIM-1 level per 1 kg/m2, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.43]).

Conclusions and relevance: In this genetic association study, KIM-1 was identified as a potential mitigator of COVID-19 severity, possibly attenuating the increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization among individuals with high BMI. Further studies are required to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms.

Figure.. Associations Among Body Mass Index (BMI), Kidney Injury Molecule-1 (KIM-1), and COVID-19 Hospitalization

Two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of associations between BMI and KIM-1, KIM-1 and COVID-19 hospitalization, and BMI and COVID-19 hospitalization. Multivariable MR analysis of the association between BMI and COVID-19 hospitalization, with KIM-1 as a covariate. Odds ratios (ORs) are presented with 95% CIs and P values.