Spatial investigation of the links between aflatoxins legislation, climate, and liver cancer at the global scale

Abstract

Aflatoxins are carcinogenic toxins produced by fungi, and many countries legislate limits in food. Previous research suggests elevated liver cancer (LC) mortality in some areas may be due to aflatoxin exposure, but this has not been investigated spatially. We investigate links between aflatoxin legislation, climate, and LC mortality and other covariates globally. Comparison tests of LC mortality showed expected patterns with legislation and climate. They also showed associations between high LC mortality and high Hepatitis, low alcohol consumption, low health expenditure and high family agriculture rates. Spatial analysis showed latitudinal trend with significant clusters of low LC mortality in Europe and high rates in West Africa, Central America, East and South-East Asia. Only health expenditure and Hepatitis were significant in spatial regression, but climate and family agriculture were also significant in multiple linear regression (MLR). Results suggest that aflatoxin education and legislation should be expanded, particularly in hot/wet climates.