A natural disaster exacerbates and redistributes disease risk across free-ranging macaques by altering social structure

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, with severe implications for ecosystem dynamics. A key behavioural mechanism whereby animals may cope with such events is by increasing social cohesion to improve access to scarce resources like refuges, which in turn could exacerbate epidemic risk due to increased close contact. However, how and to what extent natural disasters affect disease risk via changes in sociality remains unexplored in animal populations. By modelling disease spread in free-living rhesus macaque groups (Macaca mulatta) before and after a hurricane, we demonstrate doubled pathogen transmission rates up to five years following the disaster, equivalent to an increase in pathogen infectivity from 10% to 20%. Moreover, the hurricane redistributed the risk of infection across the population, decreasing status-related differences found in pre-hurricane years. These findings demonstrate that natural disasters can exacerbate and homogenise epidemic risk in an animal population via changes in sociality. These observations provide unexpected further mechanisms by which extreme weather events can threaten wildlife health, population viability, and spillover to humans.