Xpert Bladder Cancer Monitor for the Early Detection of Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Recurrences: Could Cystoscopy Be Substituted?

Abstract

XBM was prospectively assessed in spontaneous urine collected just before flexible cystoscopy and washing cytology carried out within the first 2 years follow-up of 337 patients with NMIBC. Recurrences were pathologically confirmed in 49 patients (14.5%), 22 of them being high-risk (6.5%). The XBM sensitivity for detecting any type of recurrence was 69.4% and 63.6% in the cases of high-risk NMIBC. Negative predictive value (NPV) for XBM was 93% for all recurrences and 96.2% for high-risk recurrences. XBM could have avoided 213 invasive controls but missed the detection of 15 recurrences (30.6%)-8 of them of high-risk (36.4%). XBM false positive elevations were detected in 90 patients (26.7%), whereas 10 patients with the invasive method had a false positive result (3%), p <0.001. However, early detection of recurrences during the first year's follow-up after an XBM false positive result was observed in 18 patients (20%). On the other hand, 19 recurrences were detected during this period among the rest of the patients (7.7%)-p = 0.003, and odds ratio (OR) 3.0 (95% CI 1.5-6.0). Regarding one-year follow-up recurrences, 10% were high-risk recurrences in the XBM false positive group and 3.2% in the rest of the patients-p = 0.021, and OR 3.3 (95% CI 1.2-8.9). Additionally, 11.3% of the patients without false positive results developed a recurrence, p = 0.897, for any recurrence, being 10% and 5.2%, respectively, and high-risk and low-risk recurrences, p = 0.506. After searching for the best XBM cutoff for detecting the 38 high-risk initial recurrences and the early high-risk recurrences after a one-year follow-up, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) of 0.13 could have avoided 11.3% of cystoscopies and bladder wash cytologies, as this cutoff missed only 1 high-risk recurrence (2.6%). More extensive and well-designed studies will confirm if XBM can improve the surveillance of NMIBC.

Keywords: biomarker; bladder cancer; surveillance.

Figure 1

Flowchart of the patients’ recruitment process.

Figure 2

Discriminatory ability of XBM measurement to suspect high-risk recurrences at the time of its assessment and those diagnosed within the one-year follow-up. The 95% sensitivity of the XBM cutoff exhibits a 13% specificity, and the AUC is 0.725 (95% CI: 0.620–0.829).