The ramification of Cameroon's Anglophone crisis: conceptual analysis of a looming "Complex Disaster Emergency"

Abstract

One of Africa's newest struggles for liberation: Cameroon's Anglophone crisis, which emerged from legal and education grievances in 2016, rapidly escalated into a secessionist political conflict that is threatening the unity of the country, with potential to degenerate into a complex emergency. In an exploratory, qualitative, analytical, and descriptive case study research tradition involving document/content analysis, we apply the Robert Strauss Centre's complex emergency framework to investigate the potential of the Anglophone crisis, whose ramifications lead us to consider it an acute complex emergency. Our contention is based on the fact that 72.5% of the variables in all the complex emergencies fall within the relevant to extremely relevant ranking criteria. Furthermore, the establishment of a nexus between the Anglophone crisis and a natural hazard-induced disaster suggest an escalation of the crisis to an unbearable level. Using the high probability of a novel eruption at Mt. Cameroon coupled with the eminent threat of the spread of the COVID-19 virus, we contend that unless otherwise, the crisis has immense potential to cumulatively evolve into a "Complex Disaster Emergency" (CDE) in the Anglophone regions of Cameroon. Amidst the existential challenges in providing humanitarian assistance in the conflict region, and by applying the Robert Strauss Centre's complex emergency framework, this article concludes with an early warning for an impending CDE that could heighten humanitarian challenges unless there is foresight and goodwill by relevant actors to immediately commence a process of adequate contingency planning.

Keywords: Anglophone crisis; Cameroon; Complex Disaster Emergency; Complex emergency; Human rights violation; Human-induced disaster; Population displacement.

Fig. 1

Map of Cameroon showing the Anglophone regions including the main natural hazards in the country. Source: Bang (2021)

Fig. 2

Map of the Anglophone region showing pockets of territory allegedly controlled by the separatists. Source: adapted from the ICG (2019)

Fig. 3

Map of the North West Region and South West Region showing areas most affected by population displacement. Source: adapted from UNOCHA (2018)

Fig. 4

Risk maps of probability of lava flow inundation (A), human settlements (B), vent location impact on human settlements (C), and vent location impact on roads (D) on Mt. Cameroon. Source: Favalli et al. (2012)

Fig. 5

New conceptual framework for CDE. Source: authors