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. 2023 Jul 14:14:1192629.
doi: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1192629. eCollection 2023.

The global, regional and national burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the past, present and future: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Junjun Ye  1   2 , Yixi Wu  1   2 , Shuhui Yang  3 , Dan Zhu  3 , Fengwu Chen  3 , Jingxian Chen  2   4 , Xiaoxia Ji  3 , Kaijian Hou  4   5
Affiliations

The global, regional and national burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the past, present and future: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Junjun Ye et al. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). .

Abstract

Aim: To report the global, regional, and national burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 2019, assess its trends in the past, and forecast its trends in the future.

Methods: The main data source was the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. We assessed the changes in T2DM burden from 1990 to 2019 with joinpoint regression analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to forecast the T2DM incidence and mortality rate from 2020 to 2034.

Results: The burden of T2DM has increased from 1990 to 2019 generally. The low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region had the highest increase in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) due to T2DM. Nationally, the increase in ASIR (r=0.151, p=0.046) and the decrease in ASMR (r=0.355, p<0.001) were positively correlated with SDIs. In 2019, the global ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR due to T2DM were 259.9 (95% UI 240.3-281.4), 5282.9 (95% UI 4853.6-5752.1), 18.5 (95% UI 17.2-19.7), and 801.5 (95% UI 55477000-79005200) per 100,000 population, respectively. Additionally, the ASIR (r=0.153, p=0.030) and ASPR (r=0.159, p=0.024) of T2DM were positively correlated with SDIs, while ASMR (r=-0.226, p=0.001) and ASDR (r=-0.171, p=0.015) due to T2DM were negatively correlated with SDIs. The ASIR was estimated to increase to 284.42, and ASMR was estimated to increase to 19.1 from 2030 to 2034, per 100,000 population.

Conclusion: Globally, the burden of T2DM has increased in the past and was forecast to continue increasing. Greater investment in T2DM prevention is needed.

Keywords: epidemiology; forecast; global burden of disease; trend; type 2 diabetes mellitus.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Changes in the ASIR (A), ASPR (B), ASMR (C), ASDR (D) of T2DM by countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The correlation between the AAPC of ASIR (A), ASPR (B), ASMR (C), ASDR (D) of T2DM by countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The national burden of T2DM in 2019. (A) ASIR, (B) ASPR, (C) ASMR, (D) ASDR.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Global T2DM burden of T2DM across 204 countries by SDIs in 2019. (A) ASIR, (B) ASPR, (C) ASMR, (D) ASDR.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Trends in T2DM incidence and mortality rates by sex and age groups. (A) ASIR by sex. (B) ASIR by age group. (C) ASMR by age groups. (D) Mortality by age groups.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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