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. 2023 Aug 4;19(1):53.
doi: 10.1186/s12992-023-00954-5.

Spatial-temporal trends in global childhood overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030: a weight mean center and projection analysis of 191 countries

Liwang Gao #  1   2 , Wen Peng #  3   4 , Hong Xue  4   5 , Yang Wu  4   6 , Haixia Zhou  7 , Peng Jia  8   9 , Youfa Wang  10   11
Affiliations

Spatial-temporal trends in global childhood overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030: a weight mean center and projection analysis of 191 countries

Liwang Gao et al. Global Health. .

Abstract

Background: The geographic information science-based interactive map provided good prospects for the public health to study disease prevalence. The purpose of this study is to understand global spatial-temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and underlying causes help formulating intervention strategies.

Methods: This multiple cross-sectional study included data on childhood overweight and obesity prevalence, gross national income per capita, and urbanization rate for 191 countries from 1975-2016. Autoregressive integrated moving average model, standard deviational ellipse model and mixed-effects models were used to explore spatial-temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and associations with gross national income per capita and urbanization rate.

Results: Globally, childhood overweight and obesity rate would reach 30.0% in 2030 (boys: 34.2%, girls: 27.4%). By 2030, it would reach 58.3% in middle- and high-income countries and 68.1% in Western Pacific region. Spatial-temporal trendline for childhood overweight and obesity in 1975-2030 exhibited a "C" shape, migrating from 1975 (15.6。E, 24.6。N) to 2005 (10.6。E, 21.7。N), then to 2030 (14.8。E, 17.4。N). The trendline for urbanization rate was also an irregular "C", and the turning point appeared five years earlier than childhood overweight and obesity.

Conclusions: Globally, childhood overweight and obesity prevalence will continue to increase. Its weight mean center migrated from western countries to Asia and Africa following economic development.

Keywords: Children and adolescents; Global; Overweight and obesity; Projection; Trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Time trends in prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity by regions and income level worldwide. Regions and income level are categorized according to the standards of the United Nations and the World Bank, respectively. Solid lines denote observed prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity, dotted lines denote projected prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. A Time trends in prevalence (%) of childhood overweight and obesity by regions in boys. B Time trends in prevalence (%) of childhood overweight and obesity by regions in Girls. C Time trends in prevalence (%) of childhood overweight and obesity by income level in boys. D Time trends in prevalence (%) of childhood overweight and obesity by income level in Girls
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Observed and projected prevalence of overweight and obesity among boys and girls. 190 countries’ data were showed in world map. Monaco, San Marino, South Sudan and Sudan’ s childhood overweight and obesity prevalence were not projected because of missing data; Eswatini were not showed in world map
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The top ten countries with the highest increase in prevalence in childhood overweight and obesity from 1975. a The prevalence in 2016 minus the prevalence in 1975. b The prevalence in 2030 minus the prevalence in 1975
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Spatial–temporal trends in global childhood overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030. Standard deviational ellipse (SDE) method was used to analyze spatial–temporal distribution of childhood overweight and obesity. Weight mean center, the global weight mean center of overweight and obesity prevalence. A Spatial–temporal trends of all children’s prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030. B Spatial–temporal trends of boys’ prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030. C Spatial–temporal trends of girls’ prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Spatial–temporal trends in GNI per capita and urbanization rate from 1975 to 2018. Standard deviational ellipse (SDE) method was used to analyze spatial–temporal distribution of GNI per capita and urbanization rate. A Spatial–temporal trends of GNI pre capita from 1975 to 2018 in 149 countries. B Spatial–temporal trends of urbanization rate from 1975 to 2018 in 190 countries. GNI per capita, gross national income per capita
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