Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Aug 5;13(1):12727.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-39875-z.

A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon

Fernanda Valente #  1 , Márcio Laurini #  2
Affiliations

A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon

Fernanda Valente et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Wildfires in the Amazon significantly impact the forest structure and carbon cycle. Understanding the patterns of fire occurrence is crucial for effective management. A novel spatio-temporal point process framework was used to analyze changes in fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. A dynamic representation of a Log Gaussian Cox process was used to model the intensity function, which was decomposed into trend, seasonality, cycles, covariates, and spatial effects. The results show a marked decrease in long-term fire occurrence movements between the start of the sample and 2012, followed by an increase until the end of the sample, attributed to governance measures and market mechanisms. Spatial variability of fire occurrence rates in the Brazilian Amazon was successfully captured, with regions having more dry seasons experiencing higher fire occurrence rates. This analysis provides valuable insights into fire occurrence patterns in the Amazon region and the factors driving them.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Fires in Legal Amazon by quarter between 2002 and 2022.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Spatial distribution of fires in Legal Amazon between 2002 and 2022.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trend, seasonal and cycle decomposition of fire occurrences in the Legal Amazon.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Spatial random effects-Legal Amazon.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Estimated log-intensity function and observed fire occurrence-Legal Amazon.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Predicted fires given by the sum of trend, seasonality and cycle components and observed fires. Shaded areas in the graph represent the 95% Bayesian credibility interval.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Trend, seasonal and cycle decomposition of fire occurrences in the Amazon biome.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Trend, seasonal and cycle decomposition of fire occurrences in the Legal Amazon-monthly data.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Malhi Y, et al. Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science. 2008;319(5860):169–172. - PubMed
    1. Fearnside PM. Brazil’s Amazon forest in mitigating global warming: Unresolved controversies. Clim. Policy. 2012;12(1):70–81.
    1. Gedney N, Valdes PJ. The effect of Amazonian deforestation on the northern hemisphere circulation and climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000;27(19):3053–3056.
    1. Werth D, Avissar R. The local and global effects of Amazon deforestation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2002;107(D20):LBA55.
    1. Crutzen PJ, Andreae MO. Biomass burning in the tropics: Impact on atmospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles. Science. 1990;250(4988):1669–1678. - PubMed