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. 2023 Aug;7(1):e002056.
doi: 10.1136/bmjpo-2023-002056.

Development and internal validation of a Neonatal Healthcare-associated infectiOn Prediction score (NeoHoP score) for very low birthweight infants in low-resource settings: a retrospective case-control study

Lizel G Lloyd  1 , Mirjam Maria van Weissenbruch  2 , Angela Dramowski  3 , Birgitta Gleeson  4 , Cecilia Ferreyra  4 , Adrie Bekker  3
Affiliations

Development and internal validation of a Neonatal Healthcare-associated infectiOn Prediction score (NeoHoP score) for very low birthweight infants in low-resource settings: a retrospective case-control study

Lizel G Lloyd et al. BMJ Paediatr Open. 2023 Aug.

Abstract

Background and objectives: Early diagnosis of neonatal infection is essential to prevent serious complications and to avoid unnecessary use of antibiotics. The prevalence of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) among very low birthweight (VLBW; <1500 g) infants is 20%; and the mortality in low-resource settings can be as high as 70%. This study aimed to develop an Infection Prediction Score to diagnose bacterial HAIs.

Methods: A retrospective cohort of VLBW infants investigated for HAI was randomised into two unmatched cohorts. The first cohort was used for development of the score, and the second cohort was used for the internal validation thereof. Potential predictors included risk factors, clinical features, interventions, and laboratory data. The model was developed based on logistic regression analysis.

Results: The study population of 655 VLBW infants with 1116 episodes of clinically suspected HAIs was used to develop the model. The model had five significant variables: capillary refill time >3 s, lethargy, abdominal distention, presence of a central venous catheter in the previous 48 hours and a C reactive protein ≥10 mg/L. The area below the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.868. A score of ≥2 had a sensitivity of 54.2% and a specificity of 96.4%.

Conclusion: A novel Infection Prediction Score for HAIs among VLBW infants may be an important tool for healthcare providers working in low-resource settings but external validation needs to be performed before widespread use can be recommended.

Keywords: epidemiology; neonatology.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flow diagram of neonatal HAI episodes in very low birthweight infants included in the analysis. 1Any HAI: this refers to proven and presumed HAI combined. HAI, healthcare-associated infection.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Graph showing the ROC curve for the analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the NeoHoP score in the derivation cohort (A), area under curve 0.902 and the validation cohort (B), area under curve 0.868. The reference line on both graphs represents a curve with no predictive value (area under curve=0.50). NeoHoP, Neonatal Healthcare-associated infectiOn Prediction; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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