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Multicenter Study
. 2024 Mar;63(3):331-341.
doi: 10.1002/uog.27447. Epub 2024 Feb 5.

Evaluation of screening performance of first-trimester competing-risks prediction model for small-for-gestational age in Asian population

L Nguyen-Hoang  1 , I Papastefanou  2   3 , D S Sahota  1 , R K Pooh  4 , M Zheng  5 , N Chaiyasit  6 , M Tokunaka  7 , S W Shaw  8 , S Seshadri  9 , M Choolani  10 , P Yapan  11 , W S Sim  12 , L C Poon  1 ; Collaborators
Collaborators, Affiliations
Free article
Multicenter Study

Evaluation of screening performance of first-trimester competing-risks prediction model for small-for-gestational age in Asian population

L Nguyen-Hoang et al. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol. 2024 Mar.
Free article

Abstract

Objective: To examine the external validity of the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for the prediction of small-for-gestational age (SGA) at 11-14 weeks' gestation in an Asian population.

Methods: This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter prospective cohort study in 10 120 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing routine assessment at 11-14 weeks' gestation. We applied the FMF competing-risks model for the first-trimester prediction of SGA, combining maternal characteristics and medical history with measurements of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and serum placental growth factor (PlGF) concentration. We calculated risks for different cut-offs of birth-weight percentile (< 10th , < 5th or < 3rd percentile) and gestational age at delivery (< 37 weeks (preterm SGA) or SGA at any gestational age). Predictive performance was examined in terms of discrimination and calibration.

Results: The predictive performance of the competing-risks model for SGA was similar to that reported in the original FMF study. Specifically, the combination of maternal factors with MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF yielded the best performance for the prediction of preterm SGA with birth weight < 10th percentile (SGA < 10th ) and preterm SGA with birth weight < 5th percentile (SGA < 5th ), with areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUCs) of 0.765 (95% CI, 0.720-0.809) and 0.789 (95% CI, 0.736-0.841), respectively. Combining maternal factors with MAP and PlGF yielded the best model for predicting preterm SGA with birth weight < 3rd percentile (SGA < 3rd ) (AUC, 0.797 (95% CI, 0.744-0.850)). After excluding cases with pre-eclampsia, the combination of maternal factors with MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF yielded the best performance for the prediction of preterm SGA < 10th and preterm SGA < 5th , with AUCs of 0.743 (95% CI, 0.691-0.795) and 0.762 (95% CI, 0.700-0.824), respectively. However, the best model for predicting preterm SGA < 3rd without pre-eclampsia was the combination of maternal factors and PlGF (AUC, 0.786 (95% CI, 0.723-0.849)). The FMF competing-risks model including maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF achieved detection rates of 42.2%, 47.3% and 48.1%, at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, for the prediction of preterm SGA < 10th , preterm SGA < 5th and preterm SGA < 3rd , respectively. The calibration of the model was satisfactory.

Conclusion: The screening performance of the FMF first-trimester competing-risks model for SGA in a large, independent cohort of Asian women is comparable with that reported in the original FMF study in a mixed European population. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Keywords: FMF; Fetal Medicine Foundation; SGA; competing-risks model; external validation; first-trimester screening; mean arterial pressure; placental growth factor; pre-eclampsia; small-for-gestational age; uterine artery pulsatility index.

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References

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