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. 2023 Jul 24:10:1141372.
doi: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1141372. eCollection 2023.

Global trends of interstitial lung diseases from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort study based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, and projections until 2030

Qi Zeng  1 , Depeng Jiang  1
Affiliations

Global trends of interstitial lung diseases from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort study based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, and projections until 2030

Qi Zeng et al. Front Med (Lausanne). .

Abstract

Background: Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are indispensable components of chronic respiratory diseases and global health challenges. We aimed to explore the global long-term changes in the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ILDs; investigate the independent effect of age, period, and cohort; and project the disease burden over the next decade.

Methods: Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 2019. The joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC). An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was employed to measure the independent effect of age, period, and cohort. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to project the global epidemiological trends until 2030.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (ILD) slightly increased from 52.66 per 100,000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 44.49 to 61.07] to 57.62 per 100,000 (95% UI 49.42 to 65.67), from 1.76 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.41 to 2.22) to 2.17 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.5 to 2.62), and from 41.57 per 100,000 (95% UI 33.93 to 51.92) to 46.45 per 100,000 (95% UI 35.12 to 54.98), whereas the ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of pneumoconiosis decreased. High social-demographic index (SDI) regions possessed the highest ASPR, whereas low-middle SDI regions had the highest ASMR and ASDR, followed by low-SDI regions in ILD. Middle-SDI regions reported the highest ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in pneumoconiosis. The age effect showed that the rate ratio (RR) was high in older adults. Period effect indicated that the RR of prevalence increased over time, whereas the RR of mortality and DALYs decreased in men but increased in women. The cohort effect exhibited that the more recent birth cohort had a higher RR than the previous cohort in prevalence. We projected that ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR would stabilize with little variation over the next decade.

Conclusion: The global burden of ILDs remains relatively severe, especially among older adults, in low- and middle-SDI regions. Effective measurements are expected to improve this situation.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease (GBD); age–period–cohort (APC) analysis; interstitial lung disease; mortality; pneumoconiosis; prevalence; projection.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global prevalent cases, ASPR (A, D), deaths, ASMR (B, E), DALYs number, and ASDR (C, F) of ILDs by sex from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global ASPR (A, D), ASMR (B, E), and ASDR (C, F) of ILDs by SDI regions from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 3
Figure 3
EAPC for prevalence (A), mortality (B), and DALYs (C) of ILD in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Joinpoint regression analysis of ASPR (A, D), ASMR (B, E), and ASDR (C, F) of ILDs from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Global trends of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs by age (A, D, G), period (B, E, H), and cohort (C, F, I) of ILD from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 6
Figure 6
RR of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs due to age (A, D, G), period (B, E, H), and cohort (C, F, I) effect of ILD from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Projections of ASPR (A), ASMR (B), and ASDR (C) of ILD among both sexes, men and women, until 2030.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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