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. 2023 Aug 9;8(1):113.
doi: 10.1038/s41541-023-00690-2.

A Strep A vaccine global demand and return on investment forecast to inform industry research and development prioritization

Donald R Walkinshaw  1 , Meghan E E Wright  2 , Marni Williams  2 , Tanya M F Scarapicchia  2 , Jean-Louis Excler  3 , Ryan E Wiley  2 , Anne E Mullin  2
Affiliations

A Strep A vaccine global demand and return on investment forecast to inform industry research and development prioritization

Donald R Walkinshaw et al. NPJ Vaccines. .

Abstract

Investment in Strep A vaccine R&D is disproportionately low relative to the large burden of Strep A diseases globally. This study presents a novel Strep A vaccine global demand and financial forecast model with estimates of potential global demand and associated revenue and profits for a hypothetical Strep A vaccine as well as a net present value (NPV) analysis of return on capital investments required to develop the vaccine. A positive NPV was calculated for a variety of developer scenarios and target populations, including the global rollout of the vaccine in private and public markets by a multinational pharmaceutical corporation and a staged rollout by a developing country vaccine manufacturer for both infant and child populations. The results suggest there is a viable commercial market for a Strep A vaccine. It is hoped that this study will help to inform industry decision-making and drive increased prioritization of, and investment in, Strep A vaccine research and development.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Number of countries introducing the vaccine in the public market each year segmented by country-income level.
Overview of timing of introduction in the public market (national immunization program; NIP), segmented by country income-level group for a the Pharma MNC Global Rollout scenario and b the DCVM Staged Rollout scenario. HICs high-income countries, UMICs upper middle-income countries, LMICs lower middle-income countries, LICs low-income countries.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Annual number of doses forecasted.
Annual doses in millions delivered throughout the forecast period segmented by country income-level group for a the Pharma MNC Global Rollout infant immunization program scenario, b the Pharma MNC Global Rollout child immunization program scenario, c the DCVM Staged Rollout infant immunization program scenario, and d the DCVM Staged Rollout child immunization program. HICs high-income countries, UMICs upper middle-income countries, LMICs lower middle-income countries, LICs low-income countries.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Annual revenue forecasted.
Annual revenue (millions, USD) segmented by country income-level group for a the Pharma MNC Global Rollout infant immunization program scenario, b the Pharma MNC Global Rollout child immunization program scenario, c the DCVM Staged Rollout infant immunization program scenario, and d the DCVM Staged Rollout child immunization program. HICs high-income countries, UMICs upper middle-income countries, LMICs lower middle-income countries, LICs low-income countries.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Annual revenue and profit forecasted by market type.
Annual revenue and profit (millions, USD) segmented by private and public markets for a the Pharma MNC Global Rollout infant immunization program scenario, b the Pharma MNC Global Rollout child immunization program scenario, c the DCVM Staged Rollout infant immunization program scenario, and d the DCVM Staged Rollout child immunization program.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Profit sensitivity analysis.
Sensitivity of forecasted profit to select model inputs for the infant immunization program at year 12 for the Pharma MNC Global Rollout scenario.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6. Net present value (NPV) sensitivity analysis.
Sensitivity of forecasted NPV to financial assumptions for the a Pharma MNC Global Rollout and b DCVM Staged Rollout infant immunization program scenarios at year 12.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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