Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Abstract

Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.

Keywords: Mayaro; Oropouche; coronavirus; epidemics; influenza; viral outbreaks.

Figure 1.

Number of affected people in the USA based on the simulations of influenza, coronaviruses, and Ebola outbreaks (using https://bioinformaticshome.com/online_software/virus-outbreak/US/index.html#; see text for the input parameters used). All numbers are in millions of people, and the respective colors represent those who would be uninfected, vaccinated (when applicable), immune, and those who would die from the infection.

Figure 2.

Number of affected people in the USA based on the simulation of the outbreak of a modified coronavirus emulating the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. All numbers are in millions of people, and the respective colors represent those who would be uninfected, vaccinated (when applicable), immune, and those who would die from the infection

Figure 3.

Map highlighting countries that either have experienced or been impacted by outbreaks of the selected viruses (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, NCEZID , Verhoef et al. , Sakkas et al. , Acosta-Ampudia et al. , Memish et al. 2020).

Figure 4.

Visual representation of countries most at risk for originating new viral outbreaks, based on observed trends from previous outbreaks and literature describing those outbreaks. The darker the color and higher the number, the more at risk the country is at for being the epicenter of a novel outbreak. The lack of color in several countries does not imply safety, but rather there is no data or models implying the country to be at risk for the origination of a novel virus.(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Dowdle , Gulland , Lewnard et al. , Clayton , Jiang et al. , Sakkas et al. , de O Mota et al. 2019) This map does not reflect the viral spread that may cover neighbor countries or all the world, depending on the virus and medical counter-measures.