Prediction of post-stroke cognitive impairment after acute ischemic stroke using machine learning

Abstract

Background and objectives: Post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) occurs in up to 50% of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Thus, the prediction of cognitive outcomes in AIS may be useful for treatment decisions. This PSCI cohort study aimed to determine the applicability of a machine learning approach for predicting PSCI after stroke.

Methods: This retrospective study used a prospective PSCI cohort of patients with AIS. Demographic features, clinical characteristics, and brain imaging variables previously known to be associated with PSCI were included in the analysis. The primary outcome was PSCI at 3-6 months, defined as an adjusted z-score of less than - 2.0 standard deviation in at least one of the four cognitive domains (memory, executive/frontal, visuospatial, and language), using the Korean version of the Vascular Cognitive Impairment Harmonization Standards-Neuropsychological Protocol (VCIHS-NP). We developed four machine learning models (logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boost, and artificial neural network) and compared their accuracies for outcome variables.

Results: A total of 951 patients (mean age 65.7 ± 11.9; male 61.5%) with AIS were included in this study. The area under the curve for the extreme gradient boost and the artificial neural network was the highest (0.7919 and 0.7365, respectively) among the four models for predicting PSCI according to the VCIHS-NP definition. The most important features for predicting PSCI include the presence of cortical infarcts, mesial temporal lobe atrophy, initial stroke severity, stroke history, and strategic lesion infarcts.

Conclusion: Our findings indicate that machine-learning algorithms, particularly the extreme gradient boost and the artificial neural network models, can best predict cognitive outcomes after ischemic stroke.

Keywords: Dementia; Machine learning; Post-stroke cognitive impairment; Stroke.

Fig. 1

Study enrollment process. PSCI, post-stroke cognitive impairment. K-VCIHS, Korean version of Vascular Cognitive Impairment Harmonization Standard

Fig. 2

Comparison of machine learning model performance for the prediction of PSCI according to the VASCOG definition matrices of the best-performing model, XGB

Fig. 3

The receiver operating characteristic curves for the developed machine learning models and the confusion matrix of the best-performing model, XGB

Fig. 4

The SHapley Additive exPlanations values of the best prediction model, XGB