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. 2023 Sep 1;13(1):14347.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-41406-9.

Predicting climate heating impacts on riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region

Toktam Makki  1 , Hossein Mostafavi  2 , Ali Akbar Matkan  3 , Roozbeh Valavi  4 , Robert M Hughes  5   6 , Shabnam Shadloo  7 , Hossein Aghighi  3 , Asghar Abdoli  1 , Azad Teimori  8 , Soheil Eagderi  9 , Brian W Coad  10
Affiliations

Predicting climate heating impacts on riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region

Toktam Makki et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Co-occurring biodiversity and global heating crises are systemic threats to life on Earth as we know it, especially in relatively rare freshwater ecosystems, such as in Iran. Future changes in the spatial distribution and richness of 131 riverine fish species were investigated at 1481 sites in Iran under optimistic and pessimistic climate heating scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict species' potential distributions by hydrologic unit (HU) occupancy under current and future climate conditions through the use of nine environmental predictor variables. The most important variable determining fish occupancy was HU location, followed by elevation, climate variables, and slope. Thirty-seven species were predicted to decrease their potential habitat occupancy in all future scenarios. The southern Caspian HU faces the highest future species reductions followed by the western Zagros and northwestern Iran. These results can be used by managers to plan conservational strategies to ease the dispersal of species, especially those that are at the greatest risk of extinction or invasion and that are in rivers fragmented by dams.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The study area and major hydrologic units in Iran (Coad, 1980).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Number of species with habitats that are predicted to either change or remain nearly stable in the future.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Percentages of losses and gains in the ranges of endemic, non-native, and native fish species. Box plot components are the median (middle line), the first and third quartiles (box top/bottom lines), and the vertical lines extending from the box plot lines are 1.5 * inter-quartile ranges of “mean percentage of loss and gain”. The dots refer the data that were used for creating box plots, scattered randomly (over the x-axis) and they are transparent. Darker points indicate that several points for that value overlapped.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Percentages of losses and gains in the distributions for all species, IUCN red list species, and other species. Box plot components are the median (middle line), the first and third quartiles (box top/bottom lines), and the vertical lines extending from the box plot lines are 1.5 * inter-quartile ranges of “mean percentage of loss and gain”. The dots refer to the data that were used for creating box plots, scattered randomly (over the x-axis) and they are transparent. Darker points indicate that several points for that value overlapped.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Fish species richness in sites at current and different future scenarios per HU.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Fish species richness change in sites at different future scenarios per HU.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Elevation categories and fish species richness in different scenarios.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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