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. 2020 Winter;50(3):325-362.
doi: 10.1162/jinh_a_01445. Epub 2019 Nov 1.

The Evolution of Models in Historical Demography

George Alter  1
Affiliations

The Evolution of Models in Historical Demography

George Alter. J Interdiscip Hist. 2020 Winter.

Abstract

This reflection on the evolution of methods and data in historical demography argues that we can still find inspiration and guidance in the work of the founders of our discipline. Historical demography is in the midst of a transition from a data-poor to a data-rich environment. Previous generations relied on demographic models to squeeze as much information as possible from the small amounts of data available. Today we live in a new era of large data sets and regression models. Researchers are creating both regional and international historical data sets of unprecedented size and depth. When examined closely, however, the methods that we use now make the same simplifying assumptions that generated the key advances of earlier generations. As we transition to new methods, demographic insight must inform our analyses and enrich our conclusions.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Proportion Women Who Were Single by Age, France, 1851 Source: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. Social, Demographic, and Educational Data for France, 1801–1897. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1992–02-16. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR00048.v1.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Family Reconstitution Form Source: E. A. Wrigley, David Edward Charles Eversley and Peter Laslett, An Introduction to English Historical Demography, from the Sixteenth to the Nineteenth Century with Contributions by W. A. Armstrong and Lynda Ovenall, (New York, 1966), 126.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Timing of Fertility Decline in Europe Source: Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cotts Watkins, The Decline of Fertility in Europe: The Revised Proceedings of a Conference on the Princeton European Fertility Project (Princeton NJ, 1986).
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Women Who Have Not Given Birth by Time Since Last Birth and Time Period, Six German Village Genealogies (Source: Alter, “From Data Scarcity to Data Abundance.”)
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