Global and national burden of atherosclerosis from 1990 to 2019: trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract

Background: Atherosclerosis-related diseases represent significant health issues among adults globally. Despite their widespread impact, comprehensive data concerning the global and national burden and trends of these diseases remain sparse. Our objective is to examine the trends in the burden of atherosclerosis among adults from 1990 to 2019 at both global and national levels.

Methods: We reported the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of atherosclerosis-related diseases (ischemic heart disease [IHD], ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) at the global and national levels among individuals based on a trend analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. We further analyzed these global trends as a function of age, gender, and the social development index. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the year with the most substantial changes in global trends.

Results: Globally, the AAPC of IHD incidence rose from 1990 to 2019 (0.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.28), with substantial surges in 1995, 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2017. Conversely, AAPC of IHD mortality rates exhibited a different trend until a rise in 2014. The AAPC of incidence rates of ischemic stroke and PAD also escalated during the same period, with respective 0.43 (95% CI, 0.39-0.48) and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.06-0.21). For ischemic stroke, both incidence and mortality soared in 2014, while PAD incidence declined in 1994 and 1998, then sharply climbed in 2016. Nationally, the Northern Mariana Islands experienced the steepest increase in IHD and PAD incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019. China saw a significant rise in ischemic stroke incidence, whereas the highest mortality rate increase occurred in Timor-Leste. By sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, low-middle-, middle-, and high-middle-SDI countries all showed upward trends in IHD, ischemic stroke, and PAD incidence. Simultaneously, IHD and ischemic stroke mortality rates, as well as DALYs, dropped in the low-, high-middle-, and high-SDI nations. However, PAD mortality rates and DALYs saw an uptick across all SDI quintiles. Regarding age demographics, a global decrease in the AAPC IHD incidence as noted in individuals above 55 years old, in contrast to an increase in the 20-55 age group during this period. AAPC of mortality rates for IHD, ischemic stroke, and PAD decreased across all ages. The AAPC showed an increase in IHD incidence in both genders. Conversely, IHD's DALYs saw a reduction in both males and females. Ischemic stroke patterns mirrored these trends, whereas all measures for PAD exhibited growth for both sexes.

Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, there was an overall increasing trend in the global incidence of all three clinical manifestations of atherosclerosis. Between 1990 and 2019, both the mortality rate and DALYs for IHD and ischemic stroke declined across all age groups. Overall, the burden of atherosclerosis-related diseases has not significantly decreased and even shows signs of trending upward. These findings strongly suggest that despite some progress made, efforts to control atherosclerosis diseases globally need to be intensified.

Figure 1

Joinpoint regression analysis of global IHD prevalence (A), incidence (B), mortality rate (C), and DALYs (D) in adults ≥20 years of age from 1990 to 2019. ^*P <0.05. APC: Annual percentage change; DALYs: Disability-adjusted life years; IHD: Ischemic heart disease.

Figure 2

Joinpoint regression analysis of global ischemic stroke prevalence (A), incidence (B), mortality rate (C), and DALYs (D) in adults ≥20 years of age from 1990 to 2019. ^*P <0.05. APC: Annual percentage change; DALYs: Disability-adjusted life years.

Figure 3

Joinpoint regression analysis of global PAD prevalence (A), incidence (B), mortality rate (C), and DALYs (D) in adults ≥20 years of age from 1990 to 2019. ^*P <0.05. APC: Annual percentage change; DALYs: Disability-adjusted life years; PAD: Peripheral arterial disease.