Short-term mortality prediction using a combination of clinical and CT features: Refining the prognosis of critically ill patients in shock

Abstract

Purpose: To assess the predictive value of combining CT and clinical findings for predicting 10-day mortality in critically ill patients in shock.

Materials and methods: From January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, 289 consecutives critically ill patients in shock who underwent a contrast enhanced CT were included. Variables at the time of the CT were retrospectively extracted from medical charts. CT examinations were blindly analyzed by two independent radiologists. Multivariable analysis was performed, combining clinical and CT features. A simple survival score for 10-day mortality prediction was built and validated in a further independent external cohort of 70 patients.

Results: 10-day mortality rate was 135/289 (47%) in the study sample. At multivariate analysis, catecholamine infusion (OR = 2.11; 95%CI [1.21-4.18], P = 0.011), lactates level > 5 mmol/l (OR = 3.54; 95%CI [1.94-6.54], P < 0.001); total bilirubin > 50 mg/l (OR = 1.79 CI 95% [1.03-3.13], P = 0.039); small bowel dilation (OR = 1.82; 95%CI [1.01-3.32], P = 0.047); diffuse kidney infarction (OR = 2.76; 95%CI [1.26-6.37], P = 0.013) and superior mesentery artery < 5 mm (OR = 1.96; 95%CI [1.10-3.49], P = 0.021) were associated with 10-days mortality. The AUC of the combined model was 0.79; 95%CI [0.74-0.85] in the study sample and 0.87; 95%CI [0.71-0.91] in the validation cohort.

Conclusion: The combination of CT imaging features and clinical data should emerge as a novel approach to predict short-term mortality in critically ill patients in shock.

Keywords: Intensive care units; Kidney; Multivariate analysis; Small bowel; Tomography, X-ray computed.