Incidence, prevalence, and global burden of ADHD from 1990 to 2019 across 204 countries: data, with critical re-analysis, from the Global Burden of Disease study

Abstract

Data on incidence, prevalence and burden of ADHD are crucial for clinicians, patients, and stakeholders. We present the incidence, prevalence, and burden of ADHD globally and across countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We also: (1) calculated the ADHD prevalence based on data actually collected as opposed to the prevalence estimated by the GBD with data imputation for countries without prevalence data; (2) discussed the GBD estimated ADHD burden in the light of recent meta-analytic evidence on ADHD-related mortality. In 2019, GBD estimated global age-standardized incidence and prevalence of ADHD across the lifespan at 0.061% (95%UI = 0.040-0.087) and 1.13% (95%UI = 0.831-1.494), respectively. ADHD accounted for 0.8% of the global mental disorder DALYs, with mortality set at zero by the GBD. From 1990 to 2019 there was a decrease of -8.75% in the global age-standardized prevalence and of -4.77% in the global age-standardized incidence. The largest increase in incidence, prevalence, and burden from 1990 to 2019 was observed in the USA; the largest decrease occurred in Finland. Incidence, prevalence, and DALYs remained approximately 2.5 times higher in males than females from 1990 to 2019. Incidence peaked at age 5-9 years, and prevalence and DALYs at age 10-14 years. Our re-analysis of data prior to 2013 showed a prevalence in children/adolescents two-fold higher (5.41%, 95% CI: 4.67-6.15%) compared to the corresponding GBD estimated prevalence (2.68%, 1.83-3.72%), with no significant differences between low- and middle- and high-income countries. We also found meta-analytic evidence of significantly increased ADHD-related mortality due to unnatural causes. While it provides the most detailed evidence on temporal trends, as well as on geographic and sex variations in incidence, prevalence, and burden of ADHD, the GBD may have underestimated the ADHD prevalence and burden. Given the influence of the GBD on research and policies, methodological issues should be addressed in its future editions.