Endemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Abstract

The fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic without decreasing trends in the global numbers of new daily cases, high numbers of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and re-infections together with pessimistic predictions for the Omicron wave duration force studies about the endemic stage of the disease. The global trends were illustrated with the use the accumulated numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters (additional vaccinations), and the results of calculation of the effective reproduction number provided by Johns Hopkins University. A new modified SIR model with re-infections was proposed and analyzed. The estimated parameters of equilibrium show that the global numbers of new daily cases will range between 300 thousand and one million, daily deaths-between one and 3.3 thousand.

Figure 1

Global characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Green, yellow and magenta lines respectively show VC_j, BC_j, R_j values listed in. Solid blue, black and red represent calculations of DV_i, DD_i and CFR_i, respectively (Eqs. (8) and (9)). Corresponding dashed lines represent the average values for different years listed in Table 1. The dotted blue line shows the results of non-linear correlation (Eq. 7).