Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Randomized Controlled Trial
. 2023 Dec;25(12):3748-3756.
doi: 10.1111/dom.15269. Epub 2023 Sep 12.

Tirzepatide reduces the predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes in people with obesity or overweight: Post hoc analysis of the SURMOUNT-1 trial

Emily R Hankosky  1 , Hui Wang  2 , Lisa M Neff  1 , Hong Kan  1 , Fangyu Wang  1 , Nadia N Ahmad  1 , Adam Stefanski  1 , W Timothy Garvey  3
Affiliations
Randomized Controlled Trial

Tirzepatide reduces the predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes in people with obesity or overweight: Post hoc analysis of the SURMOUNT-1 trial

Emily R Hankosky et al. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2023 Dec.

Abstract

Aim: We assessed the impact of tirzepatide on 10-year predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) among participants in the SURMOUNT-1 trial.

Materials and methods: In this post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-1, the Cardiometabolic Disease Staging risk engine was used to calculate the 10-year predicted risk of T2D at baseline, week 24 and week 72 among participants randomized to receive 5, 10, or 15 mg tirzepatide or placebo. Mean changes in risk scores from baseline to weeks 24 and 72 were compared between tirzepatide and placebo groups. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on participants' glycaemic status and body mass index at baseline.

Results: Mean baseline T2D predicted risk scores did not differ between tirzepatide and placebo groups (range: 22.9%-24.3%). At week 72, mean absolute T2D predicted risk score reductions were significantly greater in tirzepatide groups (5 mg, 12.4%; 10 mg, 14.4%; 15 mg, 14.7%) versus placebo (0.7%). At week 72, median relative predicted risk reductions following tirzepatide treatment ranged from 60.3% to 69.0%. For participants with and without prediabetes, risk reductions were significantly greater in tirzepatide groups versus placebo. At week 72, participants with prediabetes (range: 16.0%-20.3%) had greater mean risk score reductions from baseline versus those without prediabetes (range: 10.1%-11.3%). Across body mass index subgroups, mean reductions from baseline were significantly greater in tirzepatide groups versus placebo.

Conclusion: Tirzepatide treatment significantly reduced the 10-year predicted risk of developing T2D compared with placebo in participants with obesity or overweight, regardless of baseline glycaemic status.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04184622.

Keywords: anti-medications; obesity; prediabetes; risk prediction; tirzepatide; type 2 diabetes.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

REFERENCES

    1. Bray GA, Kim KK, Wilding JPH. Obesity: a chronic relapsing progressive disease process. A position statement of the world obesity federation. Obes Rev. 2017;18(7):715-723.
    1. Stierman B, Afful J, Carroll M, et al. National health and nutrition examination survey 2017-March 2020 prepandemic data files-development of files and prevalence estimates for selected health outcomes. National Health Statistics Reports; NHSR No. 158. 2021.
    1. Ward ZJ, Bleich SN, Cradock AL, et al. Projected U.S. state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity. N Engl J Med. 2019;381(25):2440-2450.
    1. World Health Organization. Obesity and overweight. 2021 https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight Accessed 26 April 2023.
    1. CDC. Consequences of obesity. 2022 https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/basics/consequences.html Accessed 20 April 2023.

Publication types

MeSH terms

Associated data