Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study

Abstract

Background: Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.

Methods: This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030.

Results: Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save >$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts.

Conclusions: HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.

Keywords: health economics; liver cancer; mathematical modeling; screening; treatment.