Looking at the fringes of MedTech innovation: a mapping review of horizon scanning and foresight methods

Abstract

Objectives: Horizon scanning (HS) is a method used to examine signs of change and may be used in foresight practice. HS methods used for the identification of innovative medicinal products cannot be applied in medical technologies (MedTech) due to differences in development and regulatory processes. The aim of this study is to identify HS and other methodologies used for MedTech foresight in support to healthcare decision-making.

Method: A mapping review was performed. We searched bibliographical databases including MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, IEEE Xplore and Compendex Engineering Village and grey literature sources such as Google, CORE database and the International HTA database. Our searches identified 8888 records. After de-duplication, and manual and automated title, abstracts and full-text screening, 49 papers met the inclusion criteria and were data extracted.

Results: Twenty-five single different methods were identified, often used in combination; of these, only three were novel (appearing only once in the literature). Text mining or artificial intelligence solutions appear as early as 2012, often practised in patent and social media sources. The time horizon used in scanning was not often justified. Some studies regarded experts both as a source and as a method. Literature searching remains one of the most used methods for innovation identification. HS methods were vaguely reported, but often involved consulting with experts and stakeholders.

Conclusion: Heterogeneous methodologies, sources and time horizons are used for HS and foresight of MedTech innovation with little or no justification provided for their use. This review revealed an array of known methods being used in combination to overcome the limitations posed by single methods. The review also revealed inconsistency in methods reporting, with a lack of any consensus regarding best practice. Greater transparency in methods reporting and consistency in methods use would contribute to increased output quality to support informed timely decision-making.

Keywords: BIOTECHNOLOGY & BIOINFORMATICS; Decision Making; Health policy; Systematic Review.

Figure 1

Aims and objectives for using HS/foresight methods in MedTech innovation identification: early warning; identification of emerging trends; supporting decision-making; identification of future developments; supporting technology assessment processes; identification of business opportunities; predict impact on healthcare services; planning and evaluation; prediction of adoption and diffusion; and identification of evidence gaps. HS, horizon scanning; MedTech, medical technologies.

Figure 2

Methods and sources overlap. Black denotes sources; red denotes methods used by single or combination studies; purple denotes methods only appearing once in any study (combination or single).

Figure 3

Type of sources used as described in the included reports. FDA, Food and Drug Administration; HS, horizon scanning; HTA, Health Technology Assessment.

Figure 4

Development of methods over a publication timeline.