Clinical prediction tool pitfalls and considerations: Data and algorithms

Abstract

In recent years, many surgical prediction models have been developed and published to augment surgeon decision-making, predict postoperative patient trajectories, and more. Collectively underlying all of these models is a wide variety of data sources and algorithms. Each data set and algorithm has its unique strengths, weaknesses, and type of prediction task for which it is best suited. The purpose of this piece is to highlight important characteristics of common data sources and algorithms used in surgical prediction model development so that future researchers interested in developing models of their own may be able to critically evaluate them and select the optimal ones for their study.