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. 2023 Sep 14;13(1):15242.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42573-5.

Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections

Marta Kolanowska  1
Affiliations

Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections

Marta Kolanowska. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

The identification of future refugia for endangered species from the effects of global warming is crucial for improving their conservation. Because climate-driven shifts in ranges and local extinctions can result in a spatial mismatch with their symbiotic organisms, however, it is important to incorporate in niche modelling the ecological partners of the species studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of suitable niches for the ghost orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) and its phorophytes and pollinators. Thus, its five species of host trees and three pollen vectors were included in the analysis. Climatic preferences of all the species studied were evaluated. The modelling was based on three different climate change projections and four Shared Socio-economic Pathway trajectories. All the species analysed are characterized by narrow temperature tolerances, which with global warming are likely to result in local extinctions and range shifts. D. lindenii is likely to be subjected to a significant loss of suitable niches, but within a reduced geographical range, both host trees and pollen vectors will be available in the future. Future conservation of this orchid should focus on areas that are likely be suitable for it and its ecological partners.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author declares no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Results of the jack-knife tests of the importance of the variables. Graphs compiled in MaxEnt.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Predicted changes in the distribution of D. lindenii in Florida and Cuba in the various climate change scenarios according to CNRM preojections. Maps created in ArcGIS based on MaxEnt results.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Predicted changes in the distribution of D. lindenii in Florida and Cuba in the various climate change scenarios according to GISS preojections. Maps created in ArcGIS based on MaxEnt results.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Predicted changes in the distribution of D. lindenii in Florida and Cuba in the various climate change scenarios INM preojections. Maps created in ArcGIS based on MaxEnt results.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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