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. 2023 Sep 15:13:04109.
doi: 10.7189/jogh.13.04109.

The global landscape of bladder cancer incidence and mortality in 2020 and projections to 2040

Yanting Zhang  1 , Harriet Rumgay  2 , Mengmeng Li  3 , Haibing Yu  1 , Haiyan Pan  1 , Jindong Ni  1
Affiliations

The global landscape of bladder cancer incidence and mortality in 2020 and projections to 2040

Yanting Zhang et al. J Glob Health. .

Abstract

Background: Bladder cancer (BCa) is one of the most common urological malignancies worldwide. This study examines the global epidemiological profile of BCa incidence and mortality in 2020 and the projected burden to 2040.

Methods: The estimated number of BCa cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using the world standard. The predicted BCa incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections.

Results: Globally, approximately 573 000 new BCa cases and 213 000 deaths occurred in 2020, corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 5.6 and 1.9 per 100 000, respectively. The incidence and mortality rates were approximately 4-fold higher in men (9.5 and 3.3 per 100 000, respectively) than women (2.4 and 0.9, respectively). Across world regions, incidence rates varied at least 12-fold among men and 8-fold among women, with the highest ASIRs for both men and women detected in Southern Europe (26.5 and 5.8 per 100 000, respectively) and Western Europe (21.5 and 5.8, respectively) and the lowest in Middle Africa (2.2) in men and South-Central Asia (0.7) in women. The highest ASMRs for both men and women were found in Northern Africa (9.2 and 1.8 per 100 000, respectively). By 2040, the annual number of new BCa cases and deaths will increase to 991 000 (72.8% increase from 2020) and 397 000 (86.6% increase), respectively.

Conclusions: Geographical distributions of BCa incidence and mortality uncovered higher risk of BCa incidence in Southern and Western European populations and higher risk of mortality in Northern African populations. Considering the predicted 73% and 87% increase in annual BCa cases and deaths by 2040 globally, respectively, there is an urgent need to develop and accelerate BCa control initiatives for high-risk populations to tackle global BCa burden and narrow its geographical disparities.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure of interest: The authors completed the ICMJE Declaration of Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and disclose no relevant interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Panel A. Distribution of bladder cancer cases for both sexes combined by world region in 2020. Panel B. Distribution of bladder cancer deaths for both sexes combined by world region in 2020.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Panel A. Age-standardised incidence rates of bladder cancer in men by country within world region. Panel B. Age-standardised incidence rates of bladder cancer in women by country within world region. Panel C. Age-standardised mortality rates of bladder cancer in men by country within world region. Panel D. Age-standardised mortality rates of bladder cancer in women by country within world region. Ordered according to descending rates by world region.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Panel A. Global map of age-standardised rates (ASR) of bladder cancer incidence per 100 000 person-years in men by country. Panel B. Global map of ASR of bladder cancer incidence per 100 000 person-years in women by country. Panel C. Global map of ASR of bladder cancer mortality per 100 000 person-years in men by country. Panel D. Global map of ASR of bladder cancer mortality per 100 000 person-years in women by country [2,24].
Figure 4
Figure 4
Panel A. Predicted number of new bladder cancer cases for both sexes combined assuming nine scenarios of annual change in global incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. Panel B. Predicted number of bladder cancer deaths for both sexes combined assuming nine scenarios of annual change in global mortality rates between 2020 and 2040.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Panel A. Predicted percentage change (absolute numbers are shown above bars) of the number of new bladder cancer cases for both sexes combined from between 2020 and 2040, by HDI, assuming incidence rates in 2020 remained unchanged. Panel B. Predicted percentage change (absolute numbers are shown above bars) of the number of bladder cancer deaths for both sexes combined from between 2020 and 2040, by HDI, assuming mortality rates in 2020 remained unchanged. HDI – Human Development Index
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