Nasopharyngeal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in 185 Countries in 2020 and the Projected Burden in 2040: Population-Based Global Epidemiological Profiling

Abstract

Background: Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) is one of the most common head and neck cancers.

Objective: This study describes the global epidemiological profiles of NPC incidence and mortality in 185 countries in 2020 and the projected burden in 2040.

Methods: The estimated numbers of NPC cases and deaths were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN 2020 data set. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using the world standard. The future number of NPC cases and deaths by 2040 were estimated based on global demographic projections.

Results: Globally, approximately 133,354 cases and 80,008 deaths from NPC were estimated in 2020 corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 1.5 and 0.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The largest numbers of both global cases and deaths from NPC occurred in Eastern Asia (65,866/133,354, 49.39% and 36,453/80,008, 45.56%, respectively), in which China contributed most to this burden (62,444/133,354, 46.82% and 34,810/80,008, 43.50%, respectively). The ASIRs and ASMRs in men were approximately 3-fold higher than those in women. Incidence rates varied across world regions, with the highest ASIRs for both men and women detected in South-Eastern Asia (7.7 and 2.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively) and Eastern Asia (3.9 and 1.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The highest ASMRs for both men and women were found in South-Eastern Asia (5.4 and 1.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). By 2040, the annual number of cases and deaths will increase to 179,476 (46,122/133,354, a 34.58% increase from the year 2020) and 113,851 (33,843/80,008, a 42.29% increase), respectively.

Conclusions: Disparities in NPC incidence and mortality persist worldwide. Our study highlights the urgent need to develop and accelerate NPC control initiatives to tackle the NPC burden in certain regions and countries (eg, South-Eastern Asia, China).

Keywords: epidemiology; incidence; mortality; nasopharyngeal cancer; worldwide.

Figure 1

Age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years of nasopharyngeal cancer incidence in (A) men and (B) women and mortality in (C) men and (D) women, which are ordered according to descending incidence rates by world region. Countries with zero cases are not shown in this figure.

Figure 2

Global map of age-standardized rates of nasopharyngeal cancer incidence in (A) men and (B) women and mortality in (C) men and (D) women per 100,000 person-years by country. ASR: age-standardized rate.

Figure 3

Predicted number of (A) new cases and (B) deaths from nasopharyngeal cancer, assuming 9 scenarios of annual change in global rates between 2020 and 2040, both sexes combined. Nine scenarios include annually increasing (+1%, +2%, +3%, +4%), stable (0%), and decreasing (–1%, –2%, –3%, –4%) rates from the baseline year of 2020.

Figure 4

Predicted number of new nasopharyngeal cancer cases, assuming 9 scenarios of annual change in rates between 2020 and 2040, in (A) countries with very high human development index, (B) countries with high human development index, (C) countries with medium human development index, and (D) countries with low human development index, both sexes combined. Nine scenarios consist of annually increasing (+1%, +2%, +3%, +4%), stable (0%), and decreasing (–1%, –2%, –3%, –4%) rates from the baseline year of 2020.

Figure 5

Predicted number of deaths from nasopharyngeal cancer assuming 9 scenarios of annual change in rates between 2020 and 2040 in (A) countries with very high human development index, (B) countries with high human development index, (C) countries with medium human development index, and (D) countries with low human development index, both sexes combined. Nine scenarios consist of annually increasing (+1%, +2%, +3%, +4%), stable (0%), and decreasing (–1%, –2%, –3%, –4%) rates from the baseline year of 2020.

Figure 6

Predicted number of (A) new cases and (B) deaths from nasopharyngeal cancer assuming 9 scenarios of annual change in rates between 2020 and 2040 in China (both sexes combined). Nine scenarios consist of annually increasing (+1%, +2%, +3%, +4%), stable (0%), and decreasing (–1%, –2%, –3%, –4%) rates from the baseline year of 2020.