Early warning system enables accurate mortality risk prediction for acute gastrointestinal bleeding admitted to intensive care unit

Abstract

Acute gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding are potentially life-threatening conditions. Early risk stratification is important for triaging patients to the appropriate level of medical care and intervention. Patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) has a high mortality, but risk tool is scarce for these patients. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk score to improve the prognostication of death at the time of patient admission to ICU. We developed and internally validated a nomogram for mortality in patients with acute GI bleeding from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), and externally validated it in patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database (MIMIC-III) and Wuhan Tongji Hospital. The performance of the model was assessed by examining discrimination (C-index), calibration (calibration curves) and usefulness (decision curves). 4750 patients were included in the development cohort, with 1184 patients in the internal validation cohort, 1406 patients in the MIMIC-III validation cohort, and 342 patients in the Tongji validation cohort. The nomogram, which incorporated ten variables, showed good calibration and discrimination in the training and validation cohorts, yielded C-index ranged from 0.832 (95%CI 0.811-0.853) to 0.926 (95CI% 0.905-0.947). The nomogram-defined high-risk group had a higher mortality than the low-risk group (44.8% vs. 3.5%, P < 0.001; 41.4% vs 3.1%, P < 0.001;53.6% vs 7.5%, P < 0.001; 38.2% vs 4.2%, P < 0.001). The model performed better than the conventional Glasgow-Blatchford score, AIMS65 and the newer Oakland and Sengupta scores for mortality prediction in both the derivation and validation cohorts concerning discrimination and usefulness. Our nomogram is a reliable prognostic tool that might be useful to identify high-risk acute GI bleeding patients admitted to ICU.

Keywords: Acute gastrointestinal bleeding; Mortality prediction; Nomogram; Risk factors.